Which Texas congressional districts are tossups in the 2025 midterms?
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Executive summary
Several outlets report that Texas’s newly drawn 2025 congressional map — cleared by the U.S. Supreme Court to be used in the 2026 midterms — creates as many as five additional Republican‑friendly districts and reshuffles several Democratic incumbents into vulnerable seats [1] [2]. Reporting names the 35th, 18th, 32nd/33rd/34th/28th clusters and regions (San Antonio/Rio Grande Valley/Houston/Dallas) as the most competitive under the new plan and notes Democrats could still hold or flip some of those seats depending on Latino turnout and candidate matchups [3] [4] [5].
1. What changed and why it matters: a court cleared a map that favors Republicans
Texas enacted a mid‑decade congressional map in 2025 that state Republicans said would add up to five GOP‑friendly seats; a three‑judge district court found evidence of racial gerrymandering and ordered the 2021 map used instead, but the U.S. Supreme Court temporarily allowed the 2025 map to stand for the 2026 midterms [2] [6] [7]. Multiple outlets describe the effect as shifting the state from 25 Republican seats under the 2021 map toward as many as 30 under the new plan [2] [1].
2. Which districts reporters flag as tossups or competitive
Journalists and analysts singled out the new 35th District around San Antonio, several Rio Grande Valley seats, and some Houston and Dallas area districts as the most contested under the redrawing — the NYT specifically pointed to two Rio Grande Valley seats and a San Antonio‑centered 35th as potentially holdable for Democrats [3]. Local reporting and candidate movement coverage highlights the 18th (Houston), the 32nd and 33rd/35th (Dallas/San Antonio metro shifts), and the 28th and 34th as districts where partisan control could be in play if turnout or Hispanic voting shifts [4] [8] [5].
3. Why Latino and minority turnout is the pivotal variable
Multiple outlets emphasize that Hispanic and Latino voters’ direction in 2025 and early 2026 will determine competitiveness: Democrats saw gains among Hispanic voters in some 2025 contests, and analysts warn that districts engineered to be “Republican‑friendly” could flip back in a blue wave or with stronger Latino turnout [3] [5]. The Justice Department earlier identified four majority‑nonwhite districts as problematic, underscoring how race and ethnicity are central to both the legal dispute and the election math [9].
4. Incumbent reshuffling and candidate movement widens uncertainty
Redistricting shifted incumbents and potential challengers. Reporting notes Greg Casar was moved into a different district and Rep. Al Green was drawn into the 18th, while Colin Allred and others shifted plans — moves that create open primaries and contests that reporters call “closely contested” in newly drawn seats like the 35th and parts of Dallas and Houston [4] [8] [3]. Those personnel changes increase the number of genuinely competitive races beyond what pure partisan metrics imply [4].
5. Two competing narratives: partisan strategy vs. illegal racial sorting
Texas Republicans and supporters framed the redistricting as legitimate partisan map‑making to reflect state politics and to “align representation” with Texas values [10] [11]. Federal judges and critics called the map a racial gerrymander that would dilute Black and Latino voting power; the district court issued a detailed opinion concluding race played a substantial role [6] [7]. The Supreme Court’s temporary stay favors the GOP’s near‑term electoral aims, but the legal conflict remains unresolved in lower courts [6] [7].
6. How to interpret “tossup” claims and the reporting limits
Available sources identify a handful of districts and regions as competitive or “closely contested,” but they do not provide a consistent, single list of every tossup district with probability scores; outlets emphasize the 35th, some Rio Grande Valley districts, and several Houston/Dallas seats as the most vulnerable [3] [5] [4]. Polling‑based race ratings or Cook/PVIs are not provided in the materials you gave — available sources do not mention specific numeric tossup lists or standardized ratings.
7. Bottom line for readers interested in 2026 outcomes
The map’s legal clearance makes these newly drawn districts the battlegrounds to watch: San Antonio’s 35th, parts of the Rio Grande Valley, and reconfigured Houston and Dallas seats figure prominently in contemporary reporting as potential tossups depending on Latino turnout, candidate quality, and the broader national environment [3] [5] [2]. Continued legal challenges and shifting candidate declarations mean any “tossup” label could change before primaries and the general election [6] [11].
Limitations: this summary uses only the provided reporting; it does not include proprietary ratings (Cook, Sabato) or post‑Dec. 2025 polling data that might refine which districts most reliably meet a “tossup” threshold — available sources do not mention those ratings or updated polling.