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Fact check: Which demographic groups in Texas have the lowest voter turnout rates?
Executive Summary
Texas shows persistent gaps in voter turnout across age, race/ethnicity, and geography, with the available analyses pointing most consistently to lower participation among young people and Latino and Black men compared with older and white cohorts. Data and reporting from the 2024 cycle find statewide turnout fell to about 61% of registered voters, with sharp declines in major urban counties and notable disparities by age and gender within racial groups [1] [2]. The assembled sources do not provide a single definitive breakdown for every demographic in Texas, but they collectively indicate youth (especially young men), Latino men, and Black men as among the groups with the lowest turnout rates in recent elections, while urban county declines highlight local variations [2] [1] [3].
1. Why youth turnout stands out as a problem in Texas: patterns and evidence
Multiple analyses emphasize that youth turnout lagged behind other age groups in 2024, and this appears to be true in Texas as part of a national pattern. National youth turnout rose to nearly half in 2024, but substantial variation by state and demographic subgroup persisted; research shows youth turnout ranged widely by race and gender, with young white women voting at far higher rates than young Latino and Black men [2]. State-level reporting and turnout tallies indicate that Texas’s overall turnout rate declined from 2020 and that younger voters contributed to that gap, consistent with prior state-by-state youth turnout data that tied low youth participation to policy environments like registration systems [1] [4]. The evidence frames youth — especially young men of color — as a leading low-turnout group whose participation is sensitive to registration access and mobilization.
2. Race and gender: where Latino and Black men appear most underrepresented
Disaggregated youth data show stark racial and gender divides: young Latino men (about 27% turnout) and young Black men (about 25% turnout) voted at much lower rates than young white women (about 58%) in the 2024 youth analyses cited [2]. While those figures are presented in a youth context, they illuminate broader patterns likely present in Texas, given the state’s large Latino population and sizable Black communities. Exit surveys and organizational reporting focused on Latino voters in Texas in 2024 underscore turnout challenges and localized mobilization efforts, but confirm that Latino turnout lagged relative to other groups and varied by county and campaign intensity [5] [1]. The juxtaposition of national youth subgroup statistics with Texas election reporting signals that race-and-gender intersections matter deeply when assessing who votes in Texas.
3. Geography and local turnout declines: urban counties and registration surges
Texas had a record number of registered voters in 2024 but overall turnout dropped to around 61% of registered voters, with the most pronounced declines in major urban counties such as Harris, Bexar, and Dallas, areas where Democratic coalitions expected stronger showing [1]. This geographic drop implies that turnout shortfalls are not only demographic but also spatial: areas with large minority populations and high concentrations of young voters saw larger declines. National datasets and state turnout trackers provide tools to parse election-to-election shifts, but the immediate reporting ties Texas’s turnout decline to localized engagement failures and differential mobilization, not merely changes in voter registration totals [1] [6]. The record registration number paired with lower turnout points to diluted participation among newly registered and historically lower-propensity groups.
4. Data gaps, methodological notes, and what the sources do not resolve
The assembled sources include national CPS and Census summaries, think-tank breakdowns of youth voting, and state reporting, but none deliver a fully disaggregated, Texas-specific list that ranks every demographic group by turnout rate for 2024 [3] [7] [8] [9]. Several analyses provide youth-by-race-and-gender figures and state-level youth turnout comparisons, yet they stop short of producing a comprehensive Texas-only demographic ranking; exit surveys offer valuable context on Latino voters but are limited by sampling and geography [2] [5]. Consequently, while the weight of evidence points toward young people, Latino men, and Black men as low-turnout groups, the sources leave room for local variance and require state- or county-level cross-tabulations of age, race, gender, and registration status to be definitive [3] [6].
5. Bottom line and implications for policymakers and advocates
Taken together, the evidence supports a clear conclusion for Texas: targeted efforts toward younger voters and men of color — particularly Latino and Black young men — are essential to raise turnout, and addressing registration access and local mobilization in urban counties would likely yield the largest gains [2] [1] [4]. The data highlight how policy levers such as automatic registration and online registration correlate with higher youth turnout in comparative state analyses, pointing policymakers toward reforms that could mitigate the disparities observed [4]. For advocates, the implication is to prioritize sustained, place-based engagement and registration strategies in urban centers and among young Latino and Black men, because the current evidence identifies these groups as the most underrepresented in recent Texas turnout patterns [5] [2].