How has tim walz's approval rating changed since taking office and after major policy decisions?
Executive summary
Tim Walz’s approval has generally hovered in the mid‑50s at several points but has shown meaningful variation after high‑profile events: Morning Consult found him at 56% in Q1 2025, slipping to 53% by Q3 (ranked 33rd) [1]. State polls show a wider swing—KSTP/SurveyUSA reported 58% in June 2025, 52% in February 2025 and 47%/net zero by September 2025—illustrating volatility tied to policy fights and political headlines [2] [3] [4].
1. Approval sits in the mid‑50s nationally but varies sharply at home
National tracking places Walz modestly above/below the mid‑50s across 2025 quarters—56% to 53% in Morning Consult’s quarterly snapshots—putting him in the bottom half of governors nationally, according to St. Cloud Times’ summary of Morning Consult [1]. Those numbers give a baseline but mask stronger swings in Minnesota‑focused polling from KSTP/SurveyUSA, which shows Walz as high as 58% (June 2025) and as low as an even 47%/net zero approval later in 2025 [2] [4].
2. Major policy actions correlate with short‑term bumps and dips
When Walz pushed big domestic initiatives—free school meals, abortion‑rights codification, and health‑care and education investments—state polling at times rewarded him: KSTP reported 58% approval as he prepared to testify before Congress about his fiscal agenda [2]; AP catalogues those signature policy wins [5]. Conversely, controversies over oversight and fraud in pandemic programs drew critical coverage (CNN) that corresponded with narratives of weakening public trust and may have contributed to declines seen in later state polls [6].
3. National exposure raised name recognition and shifted favorability
Walz’s profile surged after joining the 2024 ticket; Morning Consult found his name recognition and favorability climbed, with notable gains among Black and Hispanic voters and moderates (net favorability increases cited) [7]. That national attention appears to have produced short‑term boosts in some polls but also intensified partisan backlash and scrutiny that feeds volatility in approval metrics [7] [6].
4. Partisan sorting drives divergent views inside Minnesota
KSTP’s polling shows stark partisan splits: while a large majority of Democrats back a Walz third‑term bid, most Republicans favor a new DFL nominee; independents are unsettled [4] [2]. This polarization means policy wins that play well with the Democratic base (abortion protections, school meals) may not produce durable cross‑party gains and can coincide with sharp drops among GOP voters [5] [4].
5. Headlines and personal confrontations magnify swings
Walz’s public feuds with President Trump and commentary on national controversies draw attention that can affect perceptions: multiple outlets documented exchanges and sharp rhetoric between Walz and the White House, including calls to “release the MRI results” and disputes over federal policy and spending [8] [9] [10]. Such confrontations raise his profile but also polarize opinion and feed rapid polling changes reported by state media [8] [10].
6. Measurement differences explain part of the apparent instability
Different pollsters yield different snapshots: KSTP/SurveyUSA and Morning Consult measure different populations and timing, producing ranges from the high‑50s to the low‑50s or even net zero in separate releases [2] [3] [1]. Local media note KSTP’s sequence of 18 prior net‑positive polls turning neutral, underscoring how methodology, timing around events, and question wording change reported approval [4].
7. What the sources don’t resolve
Available sources do not mention a systematic, long‑term trend line tying each major policy action to a persistent approval shift beyond the short windows captured by individual polls. Sources document bumps after national exposure and heat after oversight controversies, but they do not provide a causal, longitudinal model showing which policies produced durable gains or losses [7] [6] [2].
8. Bottom line for readers
Walz’s approval is not fixed: national trackers place him in the mid‑50s with a modest slide through 2025 quarters [1], while Minnesota polls swing from 58% to 47%/net zero across months as policy fights, oversight concerns, and national headlines alter the public picture [2] [4]. Readers should treat any single poll as a momentary snapshot; partisan sorting and timing around major policy announcements explain much of the movement in the available reporting [4] [2] [7].