Have there been changes to Tim Walz's approval rating since early Jan?
Executive summary
Tim Walz’s measured approval in polls moved downward through 2025—from the mid‑50s early in the year to the low‑50s and high‑40s by autumn—and by mid‑December multiple KSTP/SurveyUSA releases showed him at roughly 48% approval and 48% disapproval [1] [2] [3]. Since early January 2026 the reporting provided here documents significant political events (including Walz’s announcement he would not run again and later saying he will “never” seek elected office) but contains no new public polling data that shows a change to his approval rating after those early‑January developments [4] [5].
1. Where the numbers stood entering January: a dead heat in December
By mid‑December 2025, the consistent public polling picture from KSTP/SurveyUSA and outlets republishing that survey put Walz essentially even at 48% approval and 48% disapproval — the lowest levels recorded by that tracker in several years and a sharp contrast with higher readings earlier in 2025 [2] [6] [7]. Those same pollsters had shown Walz with stronger marks earlier in the year — the SCTimes summarized a slide from roughly 56% in Q1 to about 53% in Q3 of 2025 — indicating a multi‑month erosion that culminated in the December breakpoint [8].
2. Events in early January that could move public sentiment — but polling evidence is absent
In January 2026 coverage shows Walz facing intense controversy tied to a statewide fraud scandal and clashes with the Trump administration; he announced he was ending his re‑election campaign in early January and later declared he would “never run for elected office again,” milestones widely reported by outlets including Fox News and NBC News [4] [5]. Those are political events that plausibly could change approval, yet none of the provided sources contain a new poll after those announcements to document any movement in his approval rating since early January [4] [5].
3. The prior trend matters: a gradual slide through 2025 that set expectations
Contextual polling across 2025 shows a clear downward arc: KSTP/SurveyUSA recorded Walz in the low‑50s earlier in 2025 before the December 48/48 reading; other regional reports likewise flagged his net approval weakening as he considered a third term [1] [3] [8]. Political analysts and outlets tracked that decline as a meaningful political vulnerability going into 2026, which helps explain why subsequent political events in January were framed as potentially decisive even without new numbers [3] [7].
4. How to interpret the silence: absence of post‑January polling in the record
Given the lack of post‑January polls in the documents reviewed, the most accurate assessment is that there is no documented change in Walz’s approval rating since early January in the provided reporting; the latest empirically measured point in these sources remains the December SurveyUSA/KSTP 48/48 result [2] [6]. Any claim that approval rose or fell after his January announcements would require new polling that is not present here; reporting about political decisions and controversy suggests reasons for movement but does not substitute for survey evidence [4] [5].
5. Competing narratives and potential agendas in coverage
Different outlets emphasize different angles: local pollsters and neutral aggregators present steady numeric tracking [2] [9], hard‑news outlets frame Walz’s announcements as fallout from scandal and partisan attacks [5], while some national outlets highlight political drama and permanent political exits in a way that can amplify perception of collapse [4]. Readers should note these editorial slants and that, in the absence of new polling data after early January, those narratives explain what happened but do not prove a contemporaneous shift in approval numbers [4] [5].
Exact, sourced conclusion: publicly available polls cited here show Walz at roughly 48% approval and 48% disapproval in mid‑December 2025 [2] [6], and the reporting provided contains no subsequent poll data to demonstrate any change in that approval rating after early January 2026; meanwhile major political events in January could plausibly shift sentiment but remain unsupported by fresh polling in these sources [4] [5].