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How did Title 42 expulsions and COVID-era policies affect illegal entry numbers in 2020–2023?
Executive summary
Title 42, in effect from March 2020 to May 11, 2023, was used to expel nearly 2–3 million migrants during the pandemic era and coincided with a sharp drop in recorded encounters in early 2020 followed by large rebounds and record-high encounters in 2021–2023 (CBP/advocacy and news estimates range from “more than 2.4 million” to “nearly 3 million” expulsions) [1] [2] [3]. Analysts and agencies disagree on causation: some reporting and modeling suggest Title 42 reduced some immediate entries but increased repeat attempts and “gotaways,” while others show encounters rose dramatically once pandemic restrictions loosened and enforcement shifted [3] [4] [5].
1. What Title 42 was and how widely it was used
Title 42 is a public‑health authority the CDC invoked in March 2020 to allow rapid expulsion of migrants at the border on COVID‑19 grounds; CBP defines Title 42 expulsions as actions taken from March 21, 2020 through May 11, 2023 [6] [7]. Government and major outlets report that during that span officials expelled on the order of millions of migrants — figures cited include “more than 2.4 million” (CBS) and “nearly three million” (BBC), and specialized trackers put the total close to 2.8–3.0 million expulsions overall [1] [2] [8]. Migration Policy Institute notes the policy was used heavily by both administrations and that CBP averaged roughly 75,900 expulsions per month over its life, peaking in May 2021 [3].
2. Short‑term effects on recorded encounters and deterrence
Encounters fell sharply in spring 2020 as COVID restrictions and Title 42 took hold, with apprehensions in April–May 2020 notably lower than pre‑pandemic months [9] [10]. However, data and analysts emphasize that the policy’s deterrent effect was limited: Migration Policy Institute concludes Title 42 was “largely ineffective in deterring irregular migration,” and other reporting shows encounters rebounded strongly after the initial dip, with surges in 2021–2023 as travelers adjusted to new conditions [3] [11].
3. Repeat crossings, “gotaways,” and measurement complications
A central criticism supported by multiple analyses is that Title 42 changed the composition of enforcement statistics: expulsions allowed rapid returns with no immigration penalties, producing higher recidivism and inflating encounter counts because the same individuals were recorded repeatedly. Pew and other analysts found repeat crossers rose from ~7% pre‑pandemic to roughly a quarter of encounters during COVID, and Migration Policy Institute and other studies tie Title 42 to increased repeat attempts [12] [3]. Separately, models estimate “entries without inspection” and “gotaways” rose during the Title 42 era — the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates illegal entries between ports climbed from 10–15k/month pre‑surge to over 85k/month at peak [5]. These measurement issues mean CBP encounter totals are a proxy rather than a clean count of unique successful illegal entries [10] [5].
4. Policy shifts and the end of Title 42 — what happened to numbers
When the Biden administration ended the COVID public health emergency in May 2023 and Title 42 expired, expectations varied. Some outlets reported border crossings stayed “lower than predicted” immediately after the lift (The New York Times), while others noted record‑high annual encounter totals in 2023 — CBP recorded historically high encounters that year, attributed in part to changes like parole programs and more arrivals at ports of entry [13] [14] [15]. Migration Policy Institute highlighted that policy changes also shifted many migrants toward legal ports of entry and parole channels, reducing some between‑port illegal crossings even as overall encounters remained high [15].
5. Competing interpretations and implicit agendas in reporting
Advocacy groups and commentators read the same data through different frames: civil‑liberties and humanitarian organizations emphasize the human cost and legal challenges to Title 42 and stress it drove repeat dangerous crossings and harmed asylum seekers [16] [17]. Conservative commentators and some law‑and‑order officials argued it was necessary for public health and border control; fact‑checking outlets caution that cherry‑picked time frames (e.g., pandemic lows) can mislead claims that immigration was “lowest in history” [4] [9]. Migration Policy Institute and neutral trackers repeatedly note legal and operational choices (e.g., reliance on Mexico to accept expulsions) shaped how many expulsions were practicable — a practical constraint sometimes absent from political claims [8] [3].
6. Bottom line and limits of the available reporting
Available reporting shows Title 42 coincided with a sharp initial drop in recorded encounters in 2020, massive use of expulsions (roughly 2–3 million total), and then large rebounds and record‑high encounter totals in 2021–2023; several analysts argue expulsions increased repeat crossings and muddled measurement of unique illegal entries [9] [1] [3] [12]. Sources do not provide a single causal estimate isolating Title 42 from pandemic travel bans, economic drivers, and later parole/program changes — models (e.g., Penn Wharton) attempt this and report big increases in “entries without inspection,” but official datasets mix expulsions, apprehensions and “gotaways,” complicating precise attribution [5] [10].