Fact check: What are the top 5 states with the highest number of ICE arrests in 2025?

Executive summary

The available, recent reporting and datasets agree that Texas, Florida and California accounted for the largest shares of ICE arrests in 2025 through late June, with Texas leading at 23.2%, Florida 11%, and California 7%, collectively representing roughly 41% of arrests in that period ^{[1] [2]}. No single source in the materials provided publishes an authoritative, ranked “top five” list for all of calendar-year 2025; several reports cover different time windows, types of actions (arrests vs. detentions vs. removals), or omit full state-by-state ranks, so the precise top-five ordering beyond the top three cannot be fully confirmed from these documents ^{[3] [4]}.

1. What the strongest claim says—and where it comes from that makes it persuasive

The clearest, most specific claim in the materials is that Texas accounted for 23.2% of ICE arrests between January 20 and June 26, 2025, with Florida at 11% and California at 7%, a finding repeated across mapping and reporting pieces that analyze ICE arrest counts for that period ^{[1] [2]}. Those figures are persuasive because they are presented as shares of a defined time window and because two separate items in the same cluster report the same percentages and headline claim; this internal consistency strengthens the statistical claim even though the underlying raw dataset is not reproduced in the excerpts provided ^{[1] [2]}. The reporting frames those three states as accounting for over 41% of arrests, a helpful summary metric for geographic concentration ^[1].

2. What other datasets agree or disagree—and why the differences matter

Other documents in the supplied corpus take related but not identical approaches: the Deportation Data Project release covers a broader individual-level dataset from September 1, 2023 to June 26, 2025, which could confirm or refine state rankings but, as presented, does not supply a published top-five by state for 2025 alone ^[3]. TRAC’s detention statistics emphasize where detainees are held—for example noting heavy use of Texas facilities and that Adams County Detention Center in Mississippi held the largest single-site detainee count at one point—but detention location and bed usage are not identical to arrest origin or arrest counts by state, which can create apparent discrepancies between sources ^[5]. Those distinctions matter because arrests, detentions and removals are related but distinct operational metrics with different geography.

3. Missing pieces: why we cannot definitively list a five-state ranking from these excerpts

None of the provided sources publishes a standalone, verified top-five state ranking for ICE arrests for all of calendar-year 2025; the closest concrete numbers cover the Jan 20–Jun 26 window and emphasize the top three states only ^{[1] [2]}. Several pieces explicitly state they do not provide a complete state ranking despite offering useful context—TRAC and other explainer articles highlight trends and record detentions without listing a five-state arrest ordering ^{[5] [4] [6]}. Because the reporting windows differ and because the Deportation Data Project’s dataset spans an overlapping but longer period without publishing a derived top-five for 2025, a rigorous, sourced top-five list cannot be assembled from the supplied materials without additional data ^[3].

4. What factors analysts say drive state variation—and how that colors interpretation

A technical brief in the provided materials links higher state-level ICE arrest rates to political and demographic factors, notably a positive association with the share of voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 and with the Latino share of the non-citizen population; this frames geographic differences as partially driven by enforcement priorities and population distribution rather than by raw cross-state criminality metrics alone ^[7]. That analytical perspective matters because it suggests that state policy environments and political context help shape where arrests occur and how resources are deployed; readers should therefore treat state counts as reflecting both operational choices by enforcement agencies and the local population footprint of non-citizen residents ^[7].

5. Conflicting narratives and potential agendas to watch in coverage

Some reporting frames the surge in arrests as part of an administration-driven crackdown and highlights increases concentrated in the South, while other pieces emphasize statistical patterns without normative framing; these different emphases can reflect editorial agendas or advocacy perspectives ^{[2] [4]}. Readers should note that language about “crackdowns” or “surges” signals interpretive framing; the underlying numeric claims about shares and facility usage remain the core factual elements that can be verified or disputed with raw datasets ^{[2] [5]}.

6. Practical bottom line for the user’s original question

Based on the provided materials, the defensible, evidence-backed answer is that Texas, Florida and California were the top three states by ICE arrest share in the January 20–June 26, 2025 window, but the materials do not contain a fully sourced top-five list for 2025 as a whole. To produce a verified top-five ranking for calendar-year 2025 would require either the underlying individual-level ICE dataset spanning January–December 2025 or a state-by-state table from a data provider such as the Deportation Data Project or TRAC that explicitly lists the fifth-ranked state ^{[1] [3] [5]}.

7. What to request next to close the gap quickly

Request the state-by-state arrest counts or shares for the full calendar year 2025 from the Deportation Data Project or ICE’s public monthly arrest tables, or obtain the raw dataset that covers January–December 2025; with that, the top-five ranking can be computed and cross-checked against detention-location tallies to reconcile arrests versus detentions ^{[3] [5]}. That targeted additional data will resolve the current ambiguity and allow a precise, fully sourced top-five list.