What were the top years for southwest border encounters since 1990 and what drove the peaks?
Executive summary
Southwest border encounters peaked in fiscal 2000 at roughly 1.6 million encounters (the high point of the modern era), with another earlier peak around 1986; encounters then trended down through the 2000s and rose again sharply in 2022–2023 before collapsing to historic lows in 2025 (monthly and fiscal year markers cited by CBP and DHS) [1] [2]. Major drivers of the peaks: economic and demographic push/pull in the 1990s–2000s, enforcement and policy changes (including Title 42 and pandemic-era shifts) affecting counts in 2020–2024, and a mix of U.S. and regional enforcement and policy shifts that produced the rapid fall in 2024–2025 [3] [4] [5].
1. The historical peaks: when the high points occurred
The long-run CBP record shows a clear peak around fiscal year 2000, when Border Patrol apprehensions reached about 1.6 million, and March 2000 stands out as the single-month high for Southwest apprehensions (220,063 in March 2000), making FY2000 the modern-era summit for encounters [1]. Analysts also point to a comparable high in 1986; otherwise, from 1990 through the late 1990s annual totals often exceeded one million per year [3] [1].
2. Why 1990s–2000s were so large: labor, demographics and migration patterns
The large counts in the 1990s and around 2000 reflect long-standing labor and demographic dynamics: strong demand for migrant labor in the U.S., large population cohorts and migration networks in Mexico and Central America, and patterns of circular and repeat cross‑border movement that produced very high apprehension counts [6] [3]. Scholarship and reporting emphasize that migration in those years was driven by economic pull, entrenched migrant networks, and the profile of migrants—often single adults—who attempted clandestine crossings frequently [3] [7].
3. The mid-2000s decline: enforcement, demographics and changing flows
After the 2000 peak, annual encounters declined substantially through the 2010s. Researchers and government data attribute the drop to multiple factors: changes in U.S. labor demand, demographic shifts in origin countries, and stronger border enforcement and interior immigration measures that reduced repeated crossings and overall flows [1] [8]. Available sources show the decline as a long-term trend rather than a single-policy result [1].
4. The 2020–2023 surge: pandemic rules, asylum dynamics and regional crises
Encounters fell briefly at the pandemic’s start when Title 42 expulsions and transit restrictions were enforced, but numbers then rebounded and surged in 2021–2023, producing record monthly totals (for example, December 2023 exceeded 370,000 nationwide encounters) as asylum seekers and mixed migration from multiple countries increased [4] [9]. Reporting notes that pandemic-era authorities (Title 42) changed the composition and counting of encounters after March FY2020, complicating comparisons [4] [3].
5. The 2024–2025 collapse: rapid policy shifts, bilateral enforcement and counting changes
Multiple agency releases and analyses document a sharp decline starting in early 2024 and accelerating into 2025, culminating in record-low monthly and FY2025 totals reported by CBP and DHS (e.g., March 2025 southwest Border Patrol apprehensions were 7,181 vs. 137,473 in March 2024) [2] [10]. Commentators and Migration Policy Institute analysis point to a combination of U.S. policy changes (new restrictions, expulsions, and parole program terminations), increased Mexican enforcement and expanded regional cooperation, and operational measures that reduced irregular arrivals between late 2023 and mid‑2024 [5] [11].
6. Measurement and counting caveats that change the picture
CBP began including Title 42 expulsions with Title 8 apprehensions in March FY2020, altering comparability with earlier years; multiple sources emphasize that “encounters” can double-count repeat crossers and that policy changes (Title 42, parole programs, ports-of-entry processing) alter who shows up in the statistics [4] [10]. Analysts warn that short-term spikes and dips often reflect policy, counting rules and seasonality more than single causal events [3] [12].
7. Competing narratives and what the data do and do not prove
Federal DHS/CBC releases and Republican administration messaging frame the 2024–2025 drop as evidence of effective border control [13] [14]; independent analysts and migration researchers acknowledge declines but stress that the fall began earlier and reflects a mix of U.S. and regional measures, pandemic-era legacies, and changing migration drivers—so attributing the trend to a single cause is misleading [12] [5]. Available sources do not mention explicit long-term demographic reversals that would by themselves explain the 2025 lows; instead they point to layered policy and enforcement shifts [5] [2].
8. Bottom line for readers
The top historical years for Southwest encounters are concentrated around FY2000 (the modern high of ~1.6 million) and earlier mid-1980s peaks; subsequent decades saw declines, a rebound in 2021–2023, and a steep decline into 2024–2025 driven by a mix of policy changes, pandemic-era counting shifts, and increased regional enforcement. The record shows clear peaks and troughs, but interpreting cause requires attention to counting rules, repeat crossings, seasonality and overlapping U.S. and foreign policy actions [1] [4] [5].