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Fact check: Which demographic groups had the highest turnout for Trump in the 2024 election?
Executive Summary
Exit-poll and post-election analyses show Donald Trump’s strongest 2024 support came from white voters, men, voters without a college degree, and middle-aged voters, with notable strength among Protestants and married voters; analysts also flagged surprising gains among some younger cohorts and among Latino and Black men. Multiple data streams and expert commentary paint a picture of a coalition anchored in non-college whites and older men but with important pockets of crossover that shaped the result [1] [2] [3].
1. Why race and education dominate the headline takeaway
Exit polls uniformly indicate that white voters and voters without a college degree were Trump’s most reliable groups in 2024. National exit polling reported roughly 57% of white voters and 62% of voters without a college degree supporting Trump, a pattern that mirrors the GOP’s recent coalition trends where racial demographics and educational attainment are key predictors of vote choice [1]. These groups also aggregate in crucial battleground states, amplifying their impact beyond raw share of the national vote. The data from these polls provides the clearest, most consistent demographic signal about who turned out for Trump in 2024 [1].
2. Men and middle-aged voters delivered consistent margins
Several post-election analyses point to men, and particularly voters aged 45–64, as decisive demographics for Trump. CBS and other exit-poll summaries reported about 55% support among male voters and 54% among 45–64-year-olds, reinforcing that gender and midlife cohorts were core components of his turnout advantage [2] [4]. These demographic slices overlap heavily with the non-college white population, creating compounded margins in suburban and exurban geographies. The cross-tabulation of age, gender, and education therefore explains much of the geographic distribution of Trump’s votes [4].
3. Religion, marital status and military service: the stabilizers
Religious affiliation and family status further delineate Trump’s highest-turnout groups. Exit-poll data showed 63% support among Protestant or other Christian identifiers and 56% among married voters, while veterans and those who have served in the military showed even higher backing (about 65%)—groups that historically trend Republican and that were prominent in 2024’s electorate [1]. These blocs provided reliable turnout that underwrote Trump’s margins in many districts; their cohesion helps explain why shifts among younger or minority voters had to be large to offset these steady pillars [1].
4. Notable but smaller shifts: young men and Latino/Black male voters
Beyond the core base, multiple reports and expert panels highlighted unexpected gains among Gen Z and among Latino and Black men, particularly younger cohorts. A June expert panel and later exit analyses documented a rightward shift among some 18–29-year-olds—CBS reported about 43% support for Trump among 18–29-year-olds in one exit poll—and analysts pointed to gains with Latino and younger Black men as contributing factors to narrow margins in key areas [5] [2] [3]. These shifts were significant because they represented movement in groups that had been crucial to Democratic victories in prior cycles; their geographic concentration mattered more than their national size [2] [3].
5. Smaller groups and anomalies: American Indian voters and union status
Some exit-poll slices show very high support within specific smaller demographics, such as American Indian voters (reported at 68% backing) and non-union members (about 51%) who favored Trump [1]. Because these groups are numerically smaller or geographically dispersed, their high percentages matter most where they are concentrated—tribal jurisdictions or certain local economies. These findings signal that localized coalitions and turnout operations amplified Trump’s performance among groups that are otherwise not central to national discussions.
6. Conflicting sources and what to watch in interpretation
The different datasets and commentaries do not fully align: exit polls emphasize white, noncollege, and married voters [1], while AP VoteCast and some analysts point to broader whiteness of the Trump electorate and modest gains among minorities [3]. Expert panels later stressed Gen Z’s shift [5], and CBS exit polling suggested stronger young-voter support than conventional expectations [2]. The divergence arises from methodology (exit poll sampling vs. VoteCast panels) and timing; interpreting which shifts were decisive requires weighting geographic turnout and state-level results alongside national percentages [1] [3] [2].
7. Bottom line: a coalition anchored in white, non-college, middle-aged men with emerging cracks
All analyses converge on the conclusion that Trump’s highest-turnout demographics in 2024 were white voters, non-college-educated voters, men, and voters aged 45–64, reinforced by strong support among Protestants, married voters, and veterans [1] [4]. At the same time, credible evidence points to real but uneven gains among younger voters and some minority men, which complicated the electoral map and merits close study for future campaigns [5] [2] [3]. Policymakers and analysts should treat both the stable base and these emergent pockets as important for understanding the 2024 outcome [1] [2].