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How did Trump's 2024 voter numbers compare to his 2020 election results?
Executive summary
Donald Trump increased his raw and coalition support between 2020 and 2024: multiple analyses show he received more popular votes in 2024 than in 2020 (roughly 74.2M in 2020 vs about 76.9M in 2024 in one report) and won the 2024 popular vote by ~1.5 points (49.8% to 48.3%) while flipping the Electoral College to 312 EVs [1] [2] [3]. Pew and Brookings analyses attribute Trump’s gain mainly to higher turnout among his 2020 voters, new/returning voters who favored him, and significant shifts among Latino and some Black voters [2] [4] [3] [5].
1. Vote totals and margins: the basic arithmetic
Public post-election tallies and widely cited summaries report that Trump’s raw vote total rose from roughly 74.2 million in 2020 to about 76.9 million in 2024, while Harris/Biden-class Democratic totals were lower in 2024 than in 2020 by several million in many accounts; Brookings specifically notes Trump gained about 326,902 more votes in New York relative to 2020 as an example of net Republican gains there [1] [5]. Pew’s breakdown shows Trump won the national popular vote in 2024 by 1.5 percentage points, receiving 49.8% versus Harris’s 48.3% [2].
2. Turnout dynamics: who showed up — and who didn’t
Pew’s post-election analysis emphasizes turnout as a principal driver: a higher share of Trump’s 2020 voters turned out again in 2024 than Biden’s 2020 voters did for Harris in 2024, and among those who voted in 2024 but not in 2020, the cohort favored Trump by about 54% to 42% (narrowing to 52%-45% when including those newly eligible) [6] [2]. Pew’s feature says 85% of Trump’s 2020 voters supported him again in 2024, while Harris retained about 79% of Biden’s 2020 voters; that combination of stronger retention plus favorable new/returning voters helped power Trump’s win [2] [6].
3. Demographic shifts: where Trump made inroads
Multiple analyses report Trump improved his standing with Hispanic voters, younger men, and modestly among Black men compared with 2020. Pew found Hispanic eligible voters who turned out in 2024 but not 2020 favored Trump 60%–37%, and exit-poll-style reporting documented gains among Latino men and women in key places [4] [7]. Pew also notes Trump’s 2024 coalition was “more racially and ethnically diverse” than in prior runs, with narrower margins for Democrats among Asians and wider GOP shares among some Black and Hispanic subgroups driven largely by turnout patterns [3] [4].
4. Geography and the Electoral College: flips matter more than national share
Analysts point out that even modest shifts in certain states produced large electoral effects: Trump captured 312 Electoral College votes in 2024 and made double-digit or multi-point swings toward Republicans in some traditionally blue states [3] [8]. PBS and Brookings note that while national margins were small by historical standards, the concentrated shifts in battleground states produced a decisive Electoral College result [9] [5].
5. Continuity vs. change: retention, switchers, and drop-offs
Pew’s analysis stresses continuity: most voters stick with their party. In 2024, only a small share switched sides; the bigger story was differential turnout — more 2020 Trump voters returned and some 2020 Biden voters dropped off — plus turnout of new/returning voters who leaned toward Trump [2] [6]. Catalist and other analysts measuring “two-way” major-party vote share also report Trump’s two-way share rose (e.g., from ~49% in 2020 to ~52% in 2024 on some measures), reinforcing that his gains were concentrated among ballots cast for the two major-party candidates [10].
6. Competing interpretations and limitations in the record
Different outlets emphasize different mechanisms. Pew and Brookings highlight turnout and coalition diversification [2] [3] [5]. Media summaries and precinct maps underline geographic flipping and narrow margins that mattered electorally [11] [9]. Some pieces stress that Democrats lost votes through drop-offs in certain groups rather than wholesale defections to Trump [5] [4]. Limitations: not all sources give identical popular-vote totals (new counts continued after Election Day), and analyses vary in how much of the shift they attribute to turnout versus persuasion [1] [2] [5].
7. What to watch next: implications for future elections
Analysts quoted in coverage argue that Trump’s 2024 coalition — built from stronger turnout among his 2020 voters plus gains with Hispanic and some other groups — poses strategic questions for both parties: Republicans must decide whether to replicate Trump’s appeal without him, and Democrats must reverse turnout shortfalls among their 2020 voters or rebuild in key demographic and geographic pockets [2] [12] [3]. Subsequent 2025 contests already show variable reversals in some states, highlighting that the 2024 shifts may not be permanent [13] [12].
If you want, I can produce a concise table comparing the key numbers cited above (2020 vs 2024 raw votes, percentage margins, Electoral College) using only the figures found in these sources.