Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: What were the total number of deportations under the Trump administration?
Executive Summary
The available reporting and agency statements show no single, universally accepted total for deportations under the Trump administration; numbers range depending on definitions and whether “self‑deportations” are counted alongside formal removals. Department of Homeland Security communications in late September 2025 claim over 2 million people “removed or self‑deported” since January 20, 2025, including roughly 400,000 formal removals, while journalistic audits and agency historical data emphasize variability in what counts as a deportation and how totals are compiled [1] [2] [3]. Independent GAO and ICE historical datasets complicate cross‑administration comparisons because methodologies and years covered differ [4] [5].
1. Big Claim Under Scrutiny: “2 Million Out, But What’s a Deportation?”
Reporting from the Department of Homeland Security in September 2025 presents a headline figure that 2 million illegal immigrants have “left the United States” since January 20, 2025, and DHS breaks that into an estimated 1.6 million voluntary self‑deportations and over 400,000 formal removals by federal authorities [1] [2]. That presentation introduces a key definitional split: “self‑deported” conflates voluntary departures and deterrence effects with formal deportation actions, so counting both together produces a larger aggregate than standard “removals” or ICE “deportations” figures. Journalistic coverage noted the large headline but flagged that the DHS framing differs from traditional removal statistics [6].
2. Official Removals vs. Voluntary Departures: Why the Numbers Diverge
DHS’s internal framing places the roughly 400,000 formal removals as the core enforcement metric, while the larger 2 million figure mixes policy‑induced departures and formal enforcement outcomes [1] [2]. Independent reporting and agency historical records emphasize that ICE removal statistics historically measure enforced removals, with GAO reports showing removals varied widely year to year — for example, ICE reported 276,122 removals in 2019 but far fewer by 2022 — underscoring that counting regimes change and direct comparisons across administrations can mislead [4] [7]. The distinction matters for claims about “largest in history,” because voluntary departures are policy effects, not solely enforcement totals.
3. Context from Past ICE Data: Removals Aren’t Constant
GAO and ICE historical summaries reveal removals and arrests fluctuate due to policy, capacity, and external conditions; a GAO report showed removals fell from 276,122 in 2019 to 81,547 in 2022 and called for stronger data transparency [4] [7]. ICE’s FY2023 annual report recorded 142,580 removals in that fiscal year alone, illustrating how year‑by‑year counts differ from campaign or administration totals and how year definitions (calendar vs. fiscal) change the sums [5]. These historical data demonstrate that comparing a multi‑year presidential total requires consistent inclusion criteria — which DHS’s 2 million composite does not follow in a conventional way.
4. Reporting and Messaging: Different Agendas Shape Headlines
Media coverage stressed that while expulsions and removals have increased in 2025, the claim of the “largest deportation in history” is context‑dependent and often driven by partisan framing; outlets pointed out the nearly 170,000 expulsions in 2025 as a separate metric used to underscore enforcement intensification [6]. DHS’s own messaging packages the 2 million figure to portray policy success by combining voluntary and forced departures, a format likely to produce stronger political impact than formal removal counts alone [1]. Critics and independent auditors warn such aggregation can inflate perceptions of formal enforcement levels.
5. What Can Be Stated with Confidence Today
Based solely on the materials under review, the only defensible concrete totals are DHS’s reported breakdown as of late September 2025: about 2 million people “removed or self‑deported” since January 20, 2025, composed of an estimated 1.6 million self‑deportations and roughly 400,000 formal deportations or removals [1] [2]. GAO and ICE historical records confirm that official ICE removal counts exist and vary widely but do not provide a single administration‑wide total that aligns perfectly with the DHS framing used in 2025 reporting [4] [5].
6. Takeaway for Readers Wanting a Clear(er) Number
If the question seeks the number of formal deportations (removals) carried out by federal authorities, the best available figure in these materials is “over 400,000 removals” reported by DHS in late September 2025, with the caveat that ICE/GAO reporting uses different year windows and methodologies that complicate direct aggregation [1] [4]. If the question accepts policy‑induced departures as part of a deportation tally, DHS’s 2 million “removed or self‑deported” figure is the number being promoted, but readers should note this blends voluntary departures and formal removals and is therefore not equivalent to historical removal totals [2] [3].