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How do legal loss rates for the Trump administration compare to previous administrations?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows multiple analyses claiming very high loss rates for the Trump 2025 administration in litigation: one widely cited count says agencies lost 79 of 85 APA challenges (a 7.1% win rate) [1], while other observers report extremely high loss rates in district courts in short windows (e.g., 96% in a recent month) and hundreds of suits filed against the administration in 2025 (over 328 by May 1 and as many as 530 in 2025) [2] [3] [4]. Comparable, consistent multi-administration win‑loss statistics are not provided in the available sources; several pieces note typical administrations historically win a majority of APA cases (around 70% per one summary) but do not offer a systematic cross-presidential dataset here [1].
1. High-volume litigation and the scale of the challenge
Reporting documents a heavy influx of litigation against the Trump administration in 2025: Bloomberg counted over 328 lawsuits by May 1, 2025, and one analysis tallied 530 suits filed in 2025—numbers the reporting characterizes as far exceeding the volume faced by recent presidents in comparable timeframes [2] [4]. Lawfare and Just Security maintain litigation trackers specifically following these challenges, underscoring the breadth of issues (immigration, tariffs, education, DEI, passports, etc.) producing legal fights [5] [6].
2. Published loss-rate snapshots: dramatic, but based on selective slices
Two prominent claims appear repeatedly: the Institute for Policy Integrity’s count showing agencies lost 79 of 85 APA challenges (a roughly 7.1% win rate for the administration) and analyses noting a roughly 93–96% loss rate in certain court cohorts or short periods [1] [3]. Democracy Forward highlights the 79-of-85 figure and frames it as a historic low compared with a putative ~70% win rate for most administrations [1]. Stanford political scientist Adam Bonica’s micro‑period analysis is cited for the 96% district‑court loss rate during a particular month [3]. These numbers are striking but derive from restricted case sets (APA challenges or single-month snapshots), not an all-cases, multi-year apples‑to‑apples comparison [1] [3].
3. Where the comparisons to prior administrations come from — and their limits
Some reporting explicitly contrasts the Trump administration’s win rates with “typical” administrations that win most APA and civil cases (a cited figure is ~70% win rate for agency actions), but the sources do not supply a comprehensive dataset that standardizes case types, timeframes, or courts across presidencies [1]. The Fulcrum and other outlets stress that sheer counts of suits in 2025 exceed first‑year counts for prior presidents (e.g., 133 multistate suits against Biden over his term versus hundreds for Trump in 2025 alone), but they also ask how many of the thousands of actions have been fully adjudicated and caution that many cases remain pending [4] [7].
4. Why loss rates might be elevated — explanations offered in the coverage
Analysts and outlets posit multiple explanations for the Trump administration’s poor showing in many filings: rapid, sweeping policy changes that invite APA and constitutional challenges, high volume producing procedural missteps, departures and turnover in Justice Department staffing, and legal strategies that push novel or expansive claims about executive power—each raising the risk of adverse rulings [3] [1]. Coverage also highlights aggressive, wide‑ranging executive action (e.g., many executive orders) as a driver of litigation volume [8] [2].
5. Alternative viewpoints and caveats in the sources
Some outlets emphasize mixed outcomes: The Fulcrum reported that out of 186 actions early in 2025 only four had been adjudicated, splitting two‑two for/against the administration, a reminder that many suits were unresolved at reporting time [7]. POLITICO and other reporting show the administration sometimes wins high‑stakes emergency appeals or seeks alternative legal pathways (e.g., Plan B strategies for tariffs), indicating that losses are not uniform and that the administration pursues appellate and Supreme Court venues aggressively [9]. The trackers (Lawfare, Just Security) document both wins and stays granted to the government [5] [6].
6. What the existing evidence does — and does not — prove
Taken together, the sources show a notable pattern: an unusually large number of lawsuits filed in 2025 and several analyses reporting very high loss rates in specific subsets of litigation (APA challenges, short periods in district courts), suggesting the administration has faced substantial judicial pushback [2] [4] [1] [3]. However, the sources do not provide a fully standardized, presidency‑by‑presidency, case‑type‑adjusted ledger that would let a definitive, apples‑to‑apples comparison of total legal loss rates across administrations; available reporting acknowledges unresolved cases and differing methodologies [7] [4].
If you want, I can: (a) pull together the specific case counts and outcomes in the Lawfare and Just Security trackers to build a more granular dataset from these sources, or (b) map the Institute for Policy Integrity methodology and attempt a matched comparison with prior administrations using only the provided materials. Which would you prefer?