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Which national polls show declining approval for Donald Trump in 2025 and what demographic shifts explain it?
Executive Summary
Multiple national polls in late 2025 show falling approval for President Donald Trump, with prominent surveys reporting net approvals ranging from about -9 to -19 points and raw approval percentages between 37–39%. The decline is broad-based but strongest among younger voters, Hispanic voters, and in Democratic-leaning states, with analysts and polls pointing to the government shutdown, economic concerns, and issue-specific weaknesses (inflation, jobs, immigration) as key drivers [1] [2] [3].
1. Polling shows a clear downward trend — how deep and how consistent is it?
National polling aggregates and high-profile single surveys recorded in late October and early November 2025 document a consistent drop in Trump’s job approval compared with earlier in his term. RealClearPolitics’ average places Trump’s net approval at about -8.9 points, noted as the lowest of his second term so far, while both an Economist/YouGov tracking poll and CNN/SSRS report approvals in the high 30s (39% and 37% respectively) with disapproval in the high 50s to low 60s [1] [2] [3]. Multiple entries from Economist/YouGov across April, September, and October show net approval in the -17 to -19 range and emphasize that the October figures represented a new low in his second term [3]. These polls align in direction and magnitude, indicating a sustained and multi-month deterioration rather than a single outlier.
2. Who is shifting away fastest — the demographic story underneath the averages
The demographic breakdowns in these polls reveal notable erosion among younger voters and Hispanic Americans, with sizable net swings reported between early 2025 and the autumn. Economist/YouGov data documents a collapse in approval among adults under 30 from roughly 50% in February to about 20% by October, a swing that alone materially affects national averages given turnout patterns [3]. Separate YouGov reports from September show net approval plunges among Hispanic voters (from -12 to -30 in one series) and heavy disapproval among Black Americans (-69 in a cited tracker), underscoring broad-based disaffection across nonwhite groups and younger cohorts [4] [5]. An Associated Press–NORC and Somos Votantes signal large drops among Hispanic favorability, with Hispanic approval/ favorability falling markedly between January and October, sharpening the demographic explanation for the national slide [6].
3. What issues are cited as drivers — shutdown, economy, immigration and more
Poll commentary and topline items across the cited surveys converge on a short list of issues dragging approval: the ongoing government shutdown, negative economic assessments, and perceived poor performance on inflation, jobs, and immigration. Economist/YouGov and CNN/SSRS both highlight that majorities disapprove of Trump’s handling of the shutdown and blame him for worsening economic conditions, with one poll finding 71% rating the economy as “poor” or “very poor” and 61% saying his policies have worsened the economy [2] [7]. The Economist tracker underscores similar public dissatisfaction on inflation, jobs, and immigration, explaining why approval slips translate across age and racial lines when these issues dominate public concern [7]. These issue anchors help explain both immediate swings tied to the shutdown and more persistent weaknesses on pocketbook and governance perceptions.
4. Geographic and partisan patterns — where approval held and where it collapsed
Approval remains highest in Republican-leaning states and lowest in Democratic-leaning locales, according to the Economist tracking data, which shows regional polarization: Trump’s worst numbers are concentrated in states that typically vote Democratic while his best pockets are in solidly GOP states [7]. This geographic sorting means national declines reflect both coalition erosion in swing and Democratic areas and limited upside in GOP strongholds. Polls also show cross-cutting shifts within the Republican coalition — while white and male voters remain relatively more approving, significant erosion among young men and Latino men was reported in subgroup analyses [7] [6]. The combination of statewide partisan geography and intra-coalition demographic losses explains how national averages can move despite entrenched base support.
5. Competing narratives and what to watch next — interpretation, timing, and stakes
Different actors will use these polls to push competing stories: opponents will frame the numbers as epidemic loss of governing legitimacy tied to a shutdown and economic harm, while allies will emphasize persistent approval pockets in Republican states and among certain demographic slices, or question timing and poll methodology. The most consequential near-term indicators will be trends in Hispanic and youth favorability, movement in independent voters, and whether economic narrative shifts (labor market data, inflation trajectory, and the shutdown’s resolution) reverse or deepen the slide. Polls cited here span late October to early November 2025 and consistently point to deterioration, but future waves, turnout models, and state-level dynamics will determine whether these approval drops translate into durable political realignment [1] [2] [3].