Trump approval polls
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Executive summary
Polls show Donald Trump’s job approval clustered below 50 percent as 2026 begins, with averages putting his net approval roughly in the mid‑negative teens and individual polls ranging from the mid‑30s to low‑40s on percent approving; there are clear partisan and regional splits and recent signs of a small uptick tied to cost‑of‑living messaging [1] [2] [3] [4]. Interpreting those numbers requires care: different pollsters ask different questions, holiday polling is thin, and Trump publicly disputes the results—claiming much higher support while alternative aggregates show lower figures [5] [1] [6].
1. A snapshot of where the numbers sit
Aggregators and headline polls give a consistent picture: Nate Silver’s polling average reports Trump’s net approval around −13 entering 2026 (net meaning approve minus disapprove) and that average has hovered near that level since mid‑December [1] [7], Gallup recorded a recent second‑term low of 36 percent approval with 60 percent disapproval [2] [8], while Reuters’ week‑ending Ipsos poll showed approval edging up to 41 percent amid favorable reaction to Republican cost‑of‑living efforts [3]; The Economist/YouGov and other trackers likewise report favorability in the low‑40s with majority unfavorable assessments in many cases [4].
2. Small uptick but still under 50 percent—what changed
Several outlets described a modest rise in approval as 2026 began—framed as “inched upward” in recent summaries—and Reuters specifically linked a jump to the administration’s focus on affordability and cost‑of‑living messaging, which nudged overall approval into the low‑40s in that poll [5] [3]. Even so, those improvements remain sub‑majority and tend to be short of the levels Trump has asserted; polling averages suggest stabilization at an unfavorable level rather than a decisive rebound [1] [9].
3. Who’s shifting—and who isn’t
The movement in averages is not uniform: Republican support remains high by their own party’s standards while independents and some middle‑class cohorts have shown notable declines, a dynamic both Silver and Newsweek emphasize, with Economist/YouGov and AP‑NORC data reporting drops among middle‑income voters and independents that could be decisive in midterms [1] [10]. State maps reveal entrenched regional divides—strong backing in GOP strongholds and persistent weakness in Democratic bastions and key swing states—so national averages mask geographic concentration of support and opposition [9].
4. Measurement problems and the politics of polling
Polls differ in question wording, sample frames and timing, especially during holiday periods when releases are sparse; outlets warn that averages smooth but do not eliminate these differences and that pollsters have struggled to peg Trump’s popularity precisely in past cycles [5] [1] [11]. Trump’s camp accuses pollsters of bias—claiming a “real” approval of 64 percent on social platforms—while independent aggregators like Decision Desk HQ and RealClear show numbers far below that claim, underscoring a political incentive to dispute unfavorable data [6] [12].
5. Reading the trend into 2026: cautious implications
The current evidence supports two simultaneous conclusions: first, Trump is not near majority approval nationally and remains underwater by net‑approval metrics in many averages [1] [2]; second, modest tactical gains—on messaging about affordability or targeted outreach to Hispanic voters—can move weekly poll results upward and may matter in tight midterm contests [3] [4]. Analysts and aggregators urge caution because holiday polling is light and because short swings may reverse as more polls are released, but the pattern of entrenched partisan polarization and regional concentration is clear [5] [9].