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How did Trump's approval rating change over the course of his presidency?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s approval rating has trended downward during his second presidential term, hitting several second-term lows in November 2025: major polls show figures near 37–38% (CNN/SSRS, Reuters/Ipsos) and several national surveys put him at about 41% in mid-November (Fox) [1][2][3]. Coverage attributes the slide to economic concerns, the Jeffrey Epstein files controversy, and fallout from a prolonged government shutdown; polling also shows declining support even within segments of his base [2][4][5].
1. Early second-term levels: started low and dipped
Reporting emphasizes that both of Trump’s presidential terms began with relatively low public approval, and his second term did not reverse that pattern; in the weeks after his January inauguration his approval was higher than the November lows but still below historical presidential averages (The New York Times notes daily polling averages since Jan. 20, 2025) [1]. By late October and into November, several outlets documented steady declines into the high 30s and low 40s, indicating a sustained slide rather than a single outlier poll [1][6].
2. Multiple polls converge on a second-term floor in November 2025
Independent polling organizations recorded similar ranges in November: CNN/SSRS reported a 37% approval that it called a new low for the second term (cited by The New York Times and The Guardian), Reuters/Ipsos reported 38%, and Fox’s national poll found 41% approval among registered voters [1][2][3]. Journalists highlight that different pollsters’ methodologies and samples produce somewhat different point estimates, but they collectively indicate a material decline in public approval [1][2][3].
3. Drivers cited by pollsters and reporters: economy, Epstein files, shutdown
Coverage repeatedly links the drop to specific issues: public concern over the high cost of living and negative assessments of Trump’s economic stewardship; controversy and public interest in the Jeffrey Epstein files and related investigations; and voter frustration about the lengthy government shutdown—all factors named in multiple polls and stories as weighing on approval [2][4][7]. Reuters and Forbes foregrounded cost-of-living and Epstein-related questions as prominent explanations for the decline [2][8].
4. Erosion within GOP and key demographic shifts
Several outlets reported that the erosion is not confined to independents or Democrats: Reuters and The Independent found drops in Republican approval and losses among groups that were vital to Trump’s 2024 victory, including older voters (The Independent cites a 10-point GOP drop in one survey; Newsweek reports substantial decline among Baby Boomers) [9][5][10]. Fox and The Hill also documented a fall in core Republican support percentages relative to earlier in the year [3][11].
5. Poll-to-poll variation and what “approval” measures mean
Journalists and the NYT interactive note that “approval” can vary day-to-day and by question wording, sample (registered voters vs. likely voters vs. adults), and timing around events; newspapers provide daily or rolling averages to smooth that noise [1]. Nate Silver’s bulletin and historical comparisons caution that presidents’ second terms often see declines and that short-term drops don’t by themselves determine long-term trajectories—context that tempers singular interpretations of any one poll [12].
6. Competing narratives and implicit agendas in coverage
Coverage framing differs: some outlets emphasize the political vulnerability and implications for Republicans in upcoming midterms (The Independent, Fox), while others focus on investigative or policy controversies undermining public trust (Reuters, The Guardian) [5][3][2][6]. Paywalls and editorial slants shape which facts receive prominence; for example, outlet choice influences whether economic data, legal controversies, or intra‑party dissent are foregrounded [2][4][8].
7. What the sources do not say (limits of current reporting)
Available sources document the recent decline and cite likely causes, but they do not provide a single, unified time series chart in these snippets showing the exact trajectory from Inauguration Day through each polling wave—readers should consult primary polling archives for full day-by-day net approval trends [1]. They also do not offer a definitive causal analysis isolating which issue caused how many points of decline; the reporting links events and sentiment but does not quantify precise causal shares [2][4].
Bottom line: multiple mainstream polls in November 2025 place Trump’s approval in the high-30s to low-40s, marking clear second-term lows tied in reporting to economic worries, Epstein-file fallout and a protracted shutdown; poll averages smooth variability, and historical context suggests second terms often decline, but precise causal contributions remain unresolved in the cited reporting [1][2][12].