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Fact check: How does Trump's approval rating compare to other US presidents?
Executive Summary
President Trump’s current approval sits in a modestly negative territory by several trackers, with headline figures ranging from roughly 40% approval to mid‑40s and net approval spreads between about -6 and -8 in late September 2025 reporting. Polls show extreme partisan polarization—near‑unanimous Republican approval and near‑total Democratic disapproval—making his ratings less an average consensus than a highly divided electorate [1] [2]. Comparing him to other presidents requires careful historical framing: his raw approval numbers are not unprecedented for a president at this stage, but the depth of partisan split and state‑level underwater ratings are notable [3] [4].
1. Why the numbers differ: headline averages versus individual polls that spark debate
Different outlets report different headline approval figures because they use distinct methodologies and averaging windows. Silver Bulletin’s rolling average reports a net approval of -7.8, reflecting aggregated polls and showing a slight weekly improvement as of September 19, 2025 [3]. Gallup reported a 40% job approval on September 22, 2025, emphasizing partisan extremes—93% Republican approval versus 1% Democratic approval—which produces a widely cited figure but differs from multi‑poll aggregates [1]. RealClearPolitics’ composite returned approximately 45.4% approve / 51.8% disapprove on September 23, 2025, illustrating how sampling frames and weighting of polls change headline numbers [2].
2. The partisan fracture: why these ratings read differently than past presidents
Multiple polls emphasize that Trump’s approval is defined more by party identity than cross‑partisan appeal, with polls showing near‑total Republican support and near‑total Democratic rejection [1]. This level of polarization produces a high stability of approval within partisan bases while creating large disapproval margins overall; that dynamic differs from some presidents who enjoyed broader cross‑party approval even with similar headline approval percentages. Analysts note that the partisan gap is at record levels in some measures, which changes how comparable a 40–45% approval is relative to past presidencies where party lines were less impermeable [1].
3. State‑level and demographic signals that complicate a simple comparison
Beyond national averages, trackers show underwater ratings in key swing states and notable shifts across demographics such as older voters, women, and lower earners, which can make national numbers misleading for electoral implications [4]. Nate Silver framed these patterns as a “pretty unusual” shift because approval is not uniformly distributed and is demonstrably weaker in battleground states even when national averages appear middling [4]. Historical comparisons of presidents typically rely on national Gallup-style series, but modern electoral maps and demographic shifts mean state and subgroup breakdowns matter more than in some earlier presidencies [3] [4].
4. Historical context: are these figures unusually low or essentially normal?
Evaluating whether Trump’s approval is “low” requires comparing like with like: many presidents have languished in the low‑40s or high‑30s at various points, so a mid‑40s/40% approval is not unprecedented [3] [2]. However, what stands out in the current data is the combined pattern of net negative spreads and record partisan polarization, which some analysts argue makes the political environment different from past eras even if raw approval numbers overlap with historical precedents [3] [1]. Aggregates like Silver Bulletin’s net negative and RealClearPolitics’ disapproval spread highlight this nuance [3] [2].
5. What different analysts emphasize and why it matters for comparison claims
Poll aggregators and single‑poll firms emphasize different narratives because of their institutional aims and metrics: Gallup foregrounds a single long‑running national measure that highlights partisan homogeneity within parties [1], Silver Bulletin highlights week‑to‑week net average movement [3], and RealClearPolitics offers a blended aggregate that can produce a higher headline approval percentage [2]. Each framing answers a different question—instant snapshot, trendwise momentum, or composite picture—so claims that Trump’s approval is “not unusually low” or “deeply underwater” can both be supported depending on which metric is chosen [3] [2].
6. Bottom line for comparisons: what’s true, what’s omitted, and what to watch next
It is true that Trump’s headline approval in late September 2025 sits in the 40–45% range with net negatives around -6 to -8, and that polarization is extreme, with near‑complete partisan splits [1] [3] [2]. What is often omitted in casual comparisons is the state‑level underwater profiles and demographic shifts that make these national figures strategically consequential and historically atypical [4] [3]. Watch for how aggregates move in the coming months, particularly in swing states and among key demographics, to assess whether his approval converges with or diverges from past presidential trajectories [3] [4].