What are trump’s approval rates
Executive summary
Across national polls in early January 2026, Donald Trump’s approval rating sits below 50 percent but varies by pollster and timing — most national trackers place approval roughly in the high 30s to low-to-mid 40s while disapproval generally ranges from the mid‑50s to 60 percent [1] [2] [3]. Aggregators show a modest uptick in some series at the very start of 2026 versus late 2025, but the broad picture remains “underwater” with deep partisan and regional splits [3] [4] [5].
1. Where the headline numbers land: poll-to-poll variation
Different major polls return different headline figures: Reuters/Ipsos reported about 41–42 percent approval and roughly 56 percent disapproval in early January 2026 [2] [6], Gallup recorded a second‑term low of 36 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval in its most recent release [1], and some aggregators and averages (Decision Desk HQ, Ballotpedia, Newsweek summaries) put approval in the low‑to‑mid 40s with disapproval in the low‑to‑mid 50s [3]. These differences reflect each organization’s methodology (online vs. telephone, likely voters vs. adults), sample timing and weighting decisions — which is why the range, not any single number, best captures the state of play [7] [4].
2. Short‑term movement: slight upticks amid big headlines
Several outlets noted a small January bump or “inched upward” movement in approval at the very start of 2026, coinciding with high‑profile foreign policy events such as the capture of Nicolás Maduro; Reuters/Ipsos and some aggregators showed an uptick from the low‑40s in late December to the low‑40s in early January, while Newsweek and other analysts emphasized that averages still left Trump with net negative ratings [8] [3] [9]. Other trackers, however, emphasize stability or decline — Gallup’s monthly measure instead showed a drop to 36 percent, underscoring that short windows and differing samples can paint different portraits of momentum [1] [8].
3. Why the numbers diverge: methodology and politics
Poll variation is driven by methodology — online panels (Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov), live telephone or mixed modes (Gallup), the “likely voter” screen versus a broader adult sample, and question wording — plus timing around major news cycles [7] [1] [3]. Political context matters: coverage and messaging from the White House and opposition, and the salience of issues like the economy and immigration, push cross‑pressures on independents that show up as swings or differing subgroup patterns across polls [4] [8].
4. The deeper picture: partisan and geographic splits
All major reporting underscores entrenched partisan divides and regional differences: Republican strongholds show much higher approval while Democratic bastions and many swing states record persistent disapproval, producing maps that look deeply divided even when national averages drift a few points [5] [3]. Polls also report collapsing independent support relative to inauguration levels, and stark gaps by age and education in some surveys — patterns that amplify the political consequences of a sub‑50 percent national approval baseline [10] [6].
5. How to interpret these figures ahead of 2026 votes
The consensus across polling analysts and aggregators is that Trump’s approval being “underwater” (more disapproval than approval) leaves him politically vulnerable in competitive districts and on contentious issues, even if short‑term events can nudge numbers modestly [3] [11]. Caveats: single polls are snapshots, methodologies vary, and aggregated or rolling trackers (like Nate Silver’s/Silver Bulletin and major news organizations) provide a more stable read than one‑off surveys [4] [12]. Reporting limitations: available sources cover early January 2026 and vary in sample frames; they do not permit a single definitive national “true” approval figure beyond the documented ranges above [2] [1] [3].