WHAT IS TRUMPS APPROVAL RATIING
Executive summary
President Donald Trump’s current job-approval sits in a cluster of low‑40s to high‑30s across major national polls — most national averages report mid‑40s to upper‑30s approval depending on methodology, while net approval (approve minus disapprove) is negative and roughly in the mid‑teens; individual polls this month show figures such as 38% (Reuters/Ipsos), 39% (Civiqs, CNN/SSRS), 40% (NYT/Siena daily average), 42–43% (RealClear average), and as high as 45% in some surveys like Morning Consult, reflecting both methodological variation and a recent dip tied to immigration controversies [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7].
1. What the numbers say right now — a contested center around 38–45 percent
Multiple reputable pollsters show Trump’s overall approval rating clustered between roughly 38% and 45% this month, with Reuters/Ipsos reporting 38% overall approval tied for the low of his term (and 39% on immigration), Civiqs showing 39% approve/56% disapprove, and RealClear/aggregated averages near 42.4% approval depending on which polls are included [1] [2] [5]. Major outlets’ daily averages such as The New York Times’ interactive tracker and Nate Silver’s bulletin underline the same pattern of small shifts within that band rather than a decisive surge or collapse [4] [8].
2. Net approval and polling averages — more revealing than any single poll
Net approval — the difference between approval and disapproval — is consistently negative for Trump in late January, with RealClear-style averages producing net ratings near about –12 to –16 and Nate Silver’s composite showing a net of roughly –12.9 in recent updates, signaling a durable disapproval margin even where raw approval numbers vary [9] [8]. Individual national polls report net scores like –18 (Marist) and –19 (AP‑NORC), demonstrating that while plurality approval can sit near 40%, disapproval leads by double digits in several surveys foreign-policy-january-2026/" target="blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">[10] [3].
3. Issue and partisan dynamics driving the spread
Partisan entrenchment explains much of the stability: supporters remain highly loyal (a Wall Street Journal result cited by Fox notes 92% of 2024 Trump voters still approve in one poll), which makes approval resistant to swings, while independent and cross‑pressured voters have shifted on specific issues — most notably immigration, where approval plunged to a new low in Reuters/Ipsos (39% approve, 53% disapprove) after high‑profile enforcement incidents, and that issue weakness has fed the small downward movement in overall numbers [11] [1] [7]. Other topic areas like the economy show mixed readings, with some averages improving slightly even as immigration and foreign‑policy scores slide in particular polls [8] [9].
4. How to interpret conflicting headlines and what polling limitations mean
Different pollsters sample different populations (registered vs. likely voters vs. adults), use various weighting and field methods, and report at different moments around news events, so disparate headlines — “Trump at 45%” versus “Trump tied for lowest at 38%” — can both be true depending on the poll cited [6] [1]. Aggregates smooth those idiosyncrasies and generally place Trump in the upper‑30s to low‑40s with a negative net approval, but precision is limited: margins of error, likely‑voter models, and the choice of which polls enter an average change the headline figure, and none of the provided sources can claim a single definitive “true” approval number beyond that range [4] [5] [8].