Trump approval
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s approval rating sits in the low-to-mid 40s across major national poll aggregates, with RealClear averaging roughly 42–46 percent depending on the window used (RealClear) [1][2]. Polls show entrenched partisan support but weakening appeal outside his core voters and clear weakness on specific issues such as immigration and the economy in some surveys [3][4].
1. Current national snapshot: numbers and disagreement
Across recent national polls there is no single “approval” number but a cluster: RealClear’s multi-poll average is in the low 40s (about 42–46 percent depending on the date range) while individual large surveys report figures from roughly 39 percent (CNN/SSRS) to 45 percent (Rasmussen or Wall Street Journal in some snapshots) [1][3][5][6][2]. The New York Times/Siena polling showed about 40 percent approval in a recent release, matching the broader pattern of approval in the high 30s to mid-40s across outlets [7][4]. RealClear and other aggregators report disapproval majorities in the mid-50s in many windows [1][5].
2. Net approval and trajectory: where this sits historically
Averages that convert approvals to net approval (approve minus disapprove) show Trump below break-even and trending negative; Nate Silver’s bulletin places his net around -12 to -13 in recent averages, a better position than parts of his first term but still firmly negative compared with several past presidents [8]. The Economist’s tracker also documents a downward trajectory in his second term from a near-even start to consistently negative net numbers [9]. Long-run historic context from Gallup and other trackers underscores that both of Trump’s terms began with relatively low approval compared with many predecessors [10][9].
3. Who approves and who doesn’t: the demographic and issue map
Polls consistently show near-total retention among his 2024 voters and strong support among white and male voters and older cohorts, while younger people, many nonwhite groups and college-educated voters lean strongly toward disapproval — a pattern noted in YouGov/Economist summaries and in specific polls that show big gaps by age and race [11][9]. Issue-specific polling also matters: recent surveys highlight weak marks on immigration and the economy for some swing groups, with one analysis noting immigration ratings have “plummeted” and other polls finding majorities saying his policies are worsening economic conditions [4][12][3].
4. Political implications: stable base, brittle margins
The dominant interpretation among pollsters and commentators is that Trump’s political strength is the loyalty of his base—Wall Street Journal data cited a 92 percent retention among his 2024 voters in one snapshot—yet that cohesion comes with limited upside because growth among independents and less-traditional GOP constituencies has stalled or reversed, creating electoral vulnerability in midterm and swing-state settings [11][5]. Analysts warn that while approval in the low 40s can coexist with governing leverage, it often signals trouble for co-partisan down-ballot prospects if disaffection among independents and key demographic groups persists [5][12].
5. Competing narratives and what they emphasize
Supporters and sympathetic outlets frame a low aggregate approval as irrelevant because the core coalition remains intact and turnout-driven advantages can persist; critics emphasize the erosion among independents and demographic groups needed to sustain broader political wins [11][12]. Different pollsters’ methods, sampling and timing produce variance—Rasmussen and some Republican-leaning trackers show higher numbers than CNN or New York Times—so each side selectively cites favorable polls to buttress its narrative [6][3][7].
6. Limits of the public record and bottom line
All published numbers vary by methodology and timing, meaning there is no single definitive figure; aggregators and trackers offer the best reliable compass and point to a consistent picture: Trump’s approval is generally below 50 percent, clustering in the high 30s to mid-40s with strong partisan loyalty but eroded support among swing groups and over several key issues [1][8][3]. That mix—high base cohesion, negative net approval, and issue-specific weaknesses—defines the political space he currently occupies according to the available public polling [9][4].