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How has Trump’s approval rating trended since his 2016 campaign compared to his overall career average?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s approval has been unusually stable but generally low across his presidential terms: Gallup/aggregates show his approval around the mid‑40s at several points in 2025 (e.g., about 44% in April 2025) and specific polls in late 2025 record second‑term lows near 37% (CNN/SSRS) and a net negative in FiveThirtyEight-style averages (~‑11 RV/LV) [1] [2] [3]. Historical tracking resources show his approval has been lower, and more polarized, than most modern presidents across both terms [4] [5].
1. A presidency of narrow margins: the headline numbers
Across multiple trackers and individual polls, Trump’s approval in 2025 has clustered in the high 30s to mid‑40s: Statista references roughly 44% approval in April 2025 using Gallup-derived figures [1], The New York Times and CNN/SSRS reported lower recent readings—including a 37% CNN/SSRS mark described as a second‑term low [2] [6]. Nate Silver’s collected average shows a net approval around ‑11 among registered/likely voters (a 41.8% approve / 54.4% disapprove snapshot is also reported) [3]. These differing snapshots reflect methodology and timing differences among pollsters [3] [2].
2. How that compares with his 2016 campaign and first term
Available polling records indicate Trump entered his first term with historically low early approval relative to most presidents and repeatedly hovered in the 40s through his first presidency; sources note both terms began with “historically low approval ratings” and that early 2017 numbers were weak compared with many predecessors [2] [4]. Wikipedia and retrospective Gallup summaries show Trump’s approval was unusually steady and polarized during 2017–2021, and comparative series across presidents underscore that pattern [4] [5]. Specific comparisons to the 2016 campaign period are not detailed in these sources; available sources do not mention precise approval percentages from Trump’s 2016 campaign period in the provided reporting.
3. Trends across geography and time: state and subgroup differences
State‑level tracking and Morning Consult show Trump’s net approval is “above water” in roughly two dozen states but underwater in key swing states—an indication his national mid‑40s or lower approval masks substantial geographic variation [7] [8]. WorldPopulationReview and Morning Consult note decreases in many states since his 2017 inauguration and that swing states often have sub‑50 approval [8] [7]. Polls also show erosion among his own supporters during crises such as the 2025 government shutdown, indicating subgroup volatility within his base [9].
4. Why different polls show different pictures
Trackers and single polls use different populations (adults vs. likely/registered voters), time windows, and weighting schemes. Nate Silver’s RV/LV average is more favorable to Trump than adult polls in its reporting (e.g., ‑11 RV/LV vs. ‑15.5 among adults) [3]. CNN/SSRS and Economist/YouGov snapshots produced lower single‑survey estimates [2] [10]. Reporting that aggregates (NYT, Nate Silver, Gallup) helps reveal persistence in mid‑40s averages, while individual polls can show dips to the high‑30s or mid‑30s during political shocks [3] [2] [6].
5. Long‑term context: how unusual is this trajectory?
Sources emphasize that Trump’s approval pattern—polarized, with relatively small swings and multiple low points—is uncommon among modern presidents but well documented across his terms [4] [5]. For example, retrospective polling and historical charts show his approval often below many predecessors and that he had low approval early in his first term; his 2024 transition ratings improved versus 2016, but his presidency has remained more divisive than typical [11] [5].
6. Limitations, competing interpretations, and what to watch next
Different outlets stress different frames: some highlight a steady mid‑40s “baseline” that is survivable politically for a president (Morning Consult and aggregation tones reported in The Hill and Forbes), while others focus on second‑term lows and erosion among supporters amid specific events like the shutdown [12] [10] [9]. Methodological caveats matter: adult vs. RV/LV samples, timing around crises, and state vs. national polling produce materially different headlines [3] [7]. To track whether these are temporary dips or durable shifts, watch multi‑poll averages (FiveThirtyEight/Nate Silver, NYT aggregates, Gallup) and subgroup/state breakdowns over the coming months [3] [2] [7].
Sources cited above: Statista/Gallup [1]; NYT and CNN/SSRS reporting [2]; Nate Silver average [3]; state tracking/WorldPopulationReview [8]; Wikipedia and historical polling context [4]; Gallup transition coverage [11]; Guardian/CNN/SSRS low‑point reporting [6]; Morning Consult/Morning Consult Pro and Forbes/Hill reporting on poll lows and state trends [10] [12]; Newsweek on erosion among supporters [9]; AP‑NORC on policy approval during shutdown [13].