How do approval ratings for Trump compare historically with other presidents at similar points in their terms?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s approval ratings during comparable points of his presidencies have trended lower than many recent presidents when measured against modern Gallup-era benchmarks, and they stand out chiefly for extreme partisan polarization rather than a unique average level of public support; analysts rely on Gallup and aggregated trackers like Ballotpedia and Roper for these comparisons because they offer the longest consistent series [1] [2] [3].
1. How the raw comparisons stack up: Trump versus recent presidents
Historical tabulations from Gallup and aggregators show that Trump’s early-term and mid-term approval figures are lower than many recent presidents at the same calendar points, with contemporary reporting noting that his first eight months’ approval was the lowest among modern presidents since at least the Reagan era in comparable periods, and that his second-term early months were also unusually weak versus peers, according to a Gallup-based historical analysis cited in news reporting [4] [1].
2. Averages, snapshots and why the source matters
Comparing presidents requires choosing metrics: term averages, 100‑day ratings, or point-in-time snapshots; Gallup’s long-running series is the most consistently used source for cross-presidential comparison and is the basis for many historical lists and academic work, while Ballotpedia and Roper provide alternative aggregations and visualizations that can yield different emphases depending on poll selection and averaging windows [1] [2] [3].
3. Polarization is the headline difference, not merely the mean
What makes Trump’s approval profile historically distinct in recent years is the depth of partisan divide: Gallup and other surveys have documented record or near-record gaps between Republican and Democratic assessments of Trump, far larger than typical bipartisan swings seen for many predecessors, and retrospective surveys show extremely large partisan differentials in how Trump is judged compared with other recent presidents [5] [4] [6].
4. Where Trump resembles other presidents
At particular moments Trump’s approval has overlapped with what other presidents experienced — for example, Joe Biden’s approval at roughly two years in was reported to match Trump’s at a similar point in a Pew analysis — illustrating that point-in-time parity can occur even when long-run patterns differ [6]. Likewise, other presidents have endured steep declines from highs generated by major events, so Trump’s volatility is not wholly unprecedented in the historical record [7].
5. Limits of the comparisons: methods, timing and retrospective effects
Historic comparisons are constrained by methodological differences between polling organizations, the choice of averaging window, and the fact that retrospective ratings often exceed in‑office averages; researchers caution that some measures exist only for certain eras (Gallup’s series is unique prior to Clinton) and that averaging decisions materially alter where a president ranks [8] [1] [5].
6. What academic work adds: variance and long-term trends
Scholarly analyses emphasize that the variance of presidential approval has increased in the postwar era and that the range between highs and lows now appears wider for modern presidents, a context that helps explain why intense polarization around Trump shows up as historically notable even if some point estimates resemble past presidencies [9].
7. Bottom line and alternative readings
The plain reading of available data: Trump’s approval ratings at similar points in his terms are lower than many modern presidents’ comparable marks and are distinguished by unusually large partisan divides, but alternative analyses emphasizing different windows or poll aggregations can show moments of parity with other presidents — and scholars warn that polling method and the choice of comparison metric materially affect the conclusion [4] [2] [9] [1].