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How do Trump's approval ratings at comparable points in office compare to other modern presidents (e.g., first-term highs/lows)?
Executive summary
Gallup and other poll aggregators show Donald Trump’s approval at historically low levels for comparable points in modern presidencies — his first-term 100-day approval was about 40%, the lowest for a newly elected modern president, and recent analyses say his approval in early months of both his first and second terms is lower than any modern president at the same checkpoints (Gallup, VisualCapitalist, Gallup historical analysis) [1] [2] [3]. Polling aggregates (RealClear, FiveThirtyEight, Ipsos, NBC, Gallup) differ on exact percentages but consistently place Trump below many recent presidents while matching or exceeding a few low points from modern predecessors [4] [5] [6] [7].
1. Trump started unusually weak — the 100-day benchmark
Donald Trump’s approval during his first 100 days was about 40%, which analysts say is the lowest recorded for a newly elected modern U.S. president; most predecessors enjoyed post-inauguration “honeymoon” ratings well above 50% at comparable moments (VisualCapitalist; Gallup) [2] [1]. That early weakness contrasts with presidents such as Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush, who saw much higher immediate approval spikes tied to salient events or general post-election goodwill [2].
2. Two separate low starts: first term vs. second term comparisons
Reporting and historical Gallup analysis indicate Trump’s approval in the early months of both his first and second terms sits lower than the same timeframes for other modern presidents, with specific coverage noting his August/October readings in those years rank at or near the bottom when compared to postwar presidents (Gallup analysis reported by local outlets and national summaries) [3] [8] [9]. VisualCapitalist and RealClearPolling pieces likewise show his second-term start (mid‑40s then dipping) as weak relative to many predecessors [2] [4].
3. Aggregates and single polls — the numbers vary, the pattern holds
Different pollsters produce mid-40s or high-30s readings depending on timing and methodology: Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, Morning Consult, RealClearPolitics averages and FiveThirtyEight aggregates show variation but a consistent pattern that Trump’s approval is lower than many modern presidents’ comparable points, though sometimes comparable to the lower-tier presidencies such as Carter or George W. Bush at certain moments [10] [11] [4] [5]. Ipsos emphasizes a high partisan floor/ceiling dynamic that creates durable loyalty among supporters and persistent opposition among others — making dramatic swings less common than in earlier eras [6].
4. Net approval and partisan splits: why headline numbers hide nuance
Analysts note that Trump’s approval has an extreme partisan gap — for example, polls have shown overwhelming Republican support and near-zero Democratic support in some samples, producing record-sized partisan differentials that skew public interpretation and make cross-presidential comparisons trickier (Gallup reporting and news summaries) [3] [10]. Ipsos and Pew findings show durable party loyalties that raise a “high floor, low ceiling” effect for contemporary presidents, including Trump [6] [12].
5. Where Trump sits among modern presidents — the broader ranking dispute
Some outlets summarize that Trump’s approval across comparable early-month markers is lower than almost all modern presidents going back to Harry Truman or at least since Reagan, depending on the exact metric and poll used (Gallup historical ranking, VisualCapitalist summaries, Forbes coverage of Gallup averages) [10] [2] [3]. At the same time, other reporting stresses that while Trump’s numbers are low by historical standards, other presidents also experienced deep midterm or early-term slumps and occasional recoveries, so comparisons depend heavily on which snapshot (100 days, 8 months, 1 year) and which pollster is used [4] [5].
6. Limits of the record: methodology, timing and interpretation caveats
Comparisons across presidents rely on selected polls (Gallup historically, newer trackers like NBC, FiveThirtyEight, RealClear) and on averaging methods; Gallup historically is used as the baseline but not every outlet uses the same baseline, so exact ranks change with methodology [13] [7] [4]. Available sources do not mention standardized cross‑pollster adjustments that would make every single comparison apples-to-apples; instead, outlets note consistent patterns while acknowledging poll-to-poll variation [6] [11].
7. Bottom line for readers: consistent pattern, not a single definitive ranking
Across reputable trackers and historical Gallup analysis, Trump’s approval at comparable early points is consistently among the weakest of modern presidents, with his 40% first‑term 100‑day figure and low early-month readings repeated in coverage [2] [1] [3]. Yet specifics — whether he is the absolute lowest at every checkpoint — vary by poll, aggregation method and the precise time window examined, so readers should weigh both the consistent pattern and the methodological caveats when interpreting headlines [4] [5].