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How have Trump's approval ratings evolved across each presidential term and campaign cycle since 2015?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s approval has shown a persistent pattern of polarization: high and steady support among his base with consistently higher disapproval from others, producing a narrow band (roughly mid‑30s to high‑40s approval in most major polls across his two terms) and often negative net approval in 2025 (e.g., -13 to -19 points in some averages and polls) [1] [2]. Major outlets report second‑term lows in late 2025 — CNN/SSRS and Economist/YouGov surveys show approval in the high‑30s to mid‑30s and RealClear/Morning Consult summaries point to net negatives — while Gallup, Statista and longitudinal trackers show his approval moving within a limited, familiar range since 2017 [3] [4] [5] [2] [6].
1. Early surge, steep partisan floor: first‑term inauguration into 2017–2018
Trump began his first term with one of the lowest approval ratings of any modern incoming president and then stabilized on a highly polarized floor where Republicans overwhelmingly approved and Democrats overwhelmingly disapproved — a pattern Gallup and long‑running trackers document from 2017 onward [5]. The immediate post‑inauguration period did not show a broad upward swing; instead approval clustered in the 35–45% band depending on poll and timing [5].
2. First term dynamics: durable loyalty, limited swings
Throughout his first term, approval rarely left a narrow range because of “durable loyalty” in the Republican base and entrenched opposition from Democrats; issue‑level approval also mirrored that split, with better marks on immigration and national security at times but poorer marks on the economy or health‑care handling when those issues worsened in polls [7] [8]. Analysts noted this created a “high floor and low ceiling” for his numbers, limiting big recovery or collapse unless external events shifted public views [7].
3. 2019–2020 campaign cycle and 2020 election: incremental fluctuations
During the 2019–2020 campaign and through the 2020 election cycle, Trump’s approval moved modestly with the news cycle and crises, but longstanding party divides kept his overall figures in a similar band. National polling averages used by trackers such as Nate Silver’s site continued to report daily averages that rarely deviated far from prior norms, illustrating how campaign events produced short-lived blips more than lasting inflection points [1].
4. Post‑2020 and second term run-up (2021–2024): rebound and consolidation for a comeback
Available sources do not provide detailed month‑by‑month numbers for 2021–2024 in this collection, but trackers and Ipsos analysis argue that his first‑term patterns informed public response in the 2024 race: loyalty among supporters stayed strong and issue advantages helped Republican prospects, while net approval stayed negative or marginal overall [7]. Reuters and other trackers continued to report net approval metrics as a key lens for assessing electability [9].
5. 2025 second term: early popularity then fall to new second‑term lows
In 2025, multiple outlets charted a decline from relatively higher early‑term marks to new lows: CNN/SSRS reported 37% approval — a second‑term low — down from about 47% in mid‑February 2025, and Economist/YouGov and other polls placed approval in the high‑30s with net negatives [4] [10] [2]. RealClear and Morning Consult aggregations and Newsweek reporting placed his net approval into double‑digit deficits in November 2025, reflecting the cumulative effect of policy moves and crises highlighted in coverage [6] [1].
6. Where the numbers concentrate: mid‑30s to high‑40s; net approval usually negative in 2025
Across daily trackers and major polls cited here, Trump’s approval most commonly appears in the mid‑30s to high‑40s range depending on the pollster and sample (adults vs. registered/likely voters), while net approval in 2025 often shows him underwater by double digits in some surveys (e.g., -11 to -19 reported by several trackers and polls) [1] [2] [6]. Ipsos cautions that a sitting president with ~40% approval can face roughly 50‑50 reelection odds, highlighting that approval levels alone are an imperfect but important predictor [7].
7. Base erosion signals and alternative interpretations
Some outlets flagged slippage even within his core supporters in late 2025 — YouGov/Economist and AP‑NORC data show approval among his own voters declining several points amid issues like a government shutdown, which journalists interpreted as a sign of potential vulnerability [11] [12] [13]. Other analysts emphasize that party loyalty and issue advantages can blunt the electoral impact of a president’s negative net approval, meaning political consequences are not mechanically determined by headline approval numbers [7] [8].
8. Limitations, contested measures and what’s not in these sources
These sources use different samples (U.S. adults vs. registered or likely voters), methodologies, and aggregations; that produces divergent point estimates even while the broad pattern holds [1] [4] [2]. Available sources do not provide a full, continuous month‑by‑month table for every campaign cycle since 2015 in this packet — for that you would consult longitudinal datasets at Gallup, FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin, or Statista’s historic charts [5] [1] [3].
Bottom line: reporting across major pollsters and aggregators shows Trump’s approval has been unusually stable in its polarization since 2017, with pockets of improvement and decline tied to events; by late 2025 multiple national polls and averages placed him in the high‑30s with negative net approval and signs of slip even among core supporters [4] [2] [6].