How did Trump's approval ratings change during key events of his presidency (impeachments, COVID-19, 2020 election) compared with Obama, Bush, and Clinton?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s approval was unusually stable and polarized through crises: he averaged about 41% in his first term and hit highs near 49% around the first Senate impeachment and early COVID-19 period, then fell into the high-30s during the summer 2020 pandemic unrest and was about 46% in Gallup’s pre‑Election 2020 polls [1] [2]. By comparison, modern presidents such as Obama and George W. Bush experienced larger swings tied to major events (Bush’s surge to ~90% after 9/11 is a stark outlier) while Obama and Clinton had higher early‑term major‑event ratings than Trump did at comparable moments [3] [4] [5].
1. Impeachments: a surprising bump, not a collapse
During Trump’s first impeachment (late 2019 through the Senate trial in early 2020) some polls recorded an uptick in his job approval rather than a collapse: Gallup reported several readings near 49% in early 2020 spanning the Senate trial and the start of the coronavirus crisis, and Gallup even found a six‑point rise on the day the House impeached him [1] [6]. That pattern underscores how impeachment proceedings can reinforce partisan bases and, at least briefly, improve aggregate approval when countervailing events dominate the news cycle [1] [6].
2. COVID‑19: a mixed, temporary boost then a sharp downturn
Trump’s approval rose into the high 40s in early 2020 as Americans initially rewarded crisis leadership around the outbreak, but his ratings dropped below 40% by June 2020 amid criticism of pandemic management and concurrent racial‑justice protests [1] [7]. Multiple local and university polls found narrower approval for his COVID response — for example fewer than one‑third approved of his overall handling in one Sacred Heart survey [7]. Pew and Gallup reporting emphasize how COVID became a central explanatory factor for the mid‑2020 softening [2] [1].
3. 2020 election: low floor but partial recovery before voting
By Election Day 2020 Trump had recovered from his mid‑summer lows; Gallup and other aggregators put him around the mid‑40s in some late‑2020 measures and RealClear/aggregates showed small improvement from the May–June nadir [1] [8]. Despite that recovery, Trump left office in 2021 with a final Gallup approval near 34% and a first‑term average around 41% — figures that show a lower sustained baseline than many recent two‑term presidents [9] [1].
4. How that compares with Obama, Bush and Clinton at similar moments
Modern presidents vary: George W. Bush saw an unparalleled surge (~90%) after 9/11 — an extreme event‑driven peak that dwarfs typical changes [3]. Obama’s and Clinton’s approval paths generally started higher and had larger recovery swings than Trump’s; analyses using Gallup and RCP averages show Trump’s early and mid‑term approvals often sat below Obama’s and Bush’s at comparable calendar points [4] [10]. For instance, at 100 days in office Obama and George W. Bush registered roughly low‑60s, well above Trump’s first‑100‑day marks [10].
5. Polarization and “stability” are themselves notable events
Scholars and poll analysts say Trump’s approvals were unusually stable but deeply partisan: Pew found about four‑in‑ten approval and the widest partisan gaps in modern polling, and Gallup documented record polarization with years showing 85–92 point GOP/Dem gaps in some measurements [2] [1]. That stability means big national shocks moved numbers less than in eras when broader cross‑partisan consensus existed [2] [1].
6. Methodology caveats and competing poll narratives
Different pollsters and aggregators tell slightly different stories: Gallup, Pew, YouGov, RCP and Nate Silver’s aggregation each produce variant point estimates and trends; some polls showed higher short‑term approval readings (e.g., Rasmussen or select YouGov/CBS waves) while others trended lower [11] [12] [10]. Final comparisons depend on which aggregator, which time window and whether you use daily trackers or monthly Gallup measures [1] [12] [13].
7. What the patterns imply politically
The record shows impeachment did not produce a lasting collapse in approval and that crisis responses (early COVID) can temporarily lift ratings — but sustained management failures and additional controversies pushed Trump’s approval to historically low averages for new presidents in the modern era [1] [2]. The extreme partisan gap means shifts among independents and defections within one’s own party predict more electoral consequences than small aggregate swings [1] [2].
Limitations: available sources here do not provide a single standardized chart comparing event‑linked month‑by‑month approval across all four presidents; I relied on Gallup, Pew, RCP and contemporary reporting to assemble the contrast and note where pollsters disagree [1] [2] [13].