How have Trump’s approval ratings changed month-by-month since his January 2025 inauguration?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s approval began his second term with polls showing him near the mid‑40s to high‑40s in January 2025 and then slipped during his first 100 days before settling into a relatively narrow band for much of the year, with multiple national trackers showing a decline into the high 30s by late 2025 and early 2026 immigration-policies/" target="blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">[1] [2] [3] [4]. Variation between pollsters is substantial — some series show a steadier decline, others a sharp early drop followed by stability — and available public reporting does not provide a single, fully enumerated month‑by‑month table across all pollsters [5] [2].
1. January 2025: A strong start in some polls, but already split across surveys
At inauguration and in the immediate weeks after, several national polls recorded Trump approval figures clustered around the high‑40s — for example, Morning Consult’s early‑term polling was cited as showing roughly 49 percent approval in January — even as other reputable trackers began compiling daily averages that painted a more mixed picture [1] [5] [2]. Analysts warned at the time that headline January numbers masked wide methodological differences — likely/registered/adult samples and weighting choices — that would produce divergent month‑to‑month readings [2] [5].
2. February–April 2025: Early decline during the first 100 days
Multiple outlets reported a drop in Trump’s approval through his first 100 days, a period when policy moves such as steep tariffs and aggressive immigration measures were linked to falling economic and issue‑specific ratings; Morning Consult and other trackers recorded declines from the January peaks in subsequent months, and The New York Times’ daily average described an initial period of decline in those early months [1] [2]. The Economist and other trackers documented net approval moving into slightly negative territory as early signals of erosion on the economy and trade emerged [6] [1].
3. May–October 2025: Relative stability within a lower band
After that early wobble, several averaging trackers — compiled by FiveThirtyEight/Nate Silver, The New York Times and independent data projects — showed Trump’s overall approval settling into a narrower, lower band for much of mid‑2025, typically in the low‑to‑mid 40s on some averages and in the low 40s on others, reflecting partisan consolidation and limited movement among independents [5] [2] [7]. Journalistic summaries from TIME and other outlets characterized this period as “remarkably stable” compared with other presidencies, even as issue‑level ratings (immigration, economy) moved more visibly [2] [3].
4. November 2025: Multi‑poll lows recorded
By late November independent probability polls and Gallup recorded one of the lowest snapshots of the year, with Gallup reporting a 36 percent approval — a new second‑term low in their series — and noting double‑digit erosion since the spring on several issues [8]. Media coverage framed this as a clear downward tick across several poll houses, although not every tracker placed the president at the same low point at the same time [8] [3].
5. December 2025: Averaging shows modest recovery but still underwater
End‑of‑year polling averages such as RealClearPolitics and reported summaries in TIME found Trump’s job approval near the low‑to‑mid 40s by late December — for example, an RCP‑style composite cited around 43 percent approval and about 53 percent disapproval — signaling a modest bounce from Gallup’s nadir but an overall net negative standing in most multi‑poll aggregates [3]. Commentators emphasized that this variation reflected both methodological choices by poll aggregators and genuine short‑term responsiveness to headlines [3] [5].
6. January 2026: Issue‑driven slide into the high‑30s on several polls
In January 2026, Reuters/Ipsos and other nationally televised pollsters recorded a further dip in overall approval into the high‑30s (38–39 percent) and particularly sharp drops on immigration approval — a long‑prominent Trump issue — which Reuters framed as the lowest since his return to office [4] [9]. Multiple contemporaneous polls — CNN/SSRS, Economist/YouGov, AP‑NORC, Marist — clustered in the high‑30s to low‑40s range in early January, producing net approval metrics in the mid‑teens negative to nearly‑20 net disapproval in some surveys [9] [10].
7. What the month‑by‑month record cannot fully answer from these sources
Public reporting and trackers cited here allow clear statements about directional change — an early post‑inauguration drop, mid‑year stability, a late‑year trough and a high‑30s position by January 2026 — but the provided sources do not deliver a single, authoritative month‑by‑month numeric series that harmonizes every pollster’s methodology; researchers should consult the raw daily averages and downloadable datasets from Nate Silver, NYT, Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos and others for an exact month‑by‑month table [5] [2] [8] [4]. Different pollsters’ choices about sample frame, likely‑voter models and timing mean any month‑by‑month narrative must note those methodological drivers as well as political events [5] [2].