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Fact check: How do deportation numbers compare between the Trump and Biden administrations?
Executive Summary
The available analyses indicate conflicting tallies: recent Trump-administration statements claim over 2 million people left the U.S. (including 1.6 million “self-deported”) and more than 500,000–600,000 formal removals since January 20, 2025, while independent comparisons show the Biden administration carried out roughly 1.1 million deportations through FY2024 and was on pace to approach Trump-era totals (2017–2020). These differences reflect divergent counting methods (removals vs. returns/self-deportations), selective framing of “deportations,” and varying timeframes (calendar year vs. fiscal year) [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the head‑to‑head numbers look so different — counting choices drive the headlines
The most important reason totals diverge is what’s being counted. Trump-era claims highlighted more than 2 million people leaving the U.S. within a ~250‑day span by combining formal removals, returns at the border, and an asserted 1.6 million “self‑deportations,” producing a headline‑friendly sum [1]. Analysts note the Biden-era tallies commonly reported as “deportations” focus on formal ICE removals and expulsions under specific authorities, producing about 1.1 million removals since FY2021 in one compilation and monthly averages that differ when measured over short windows [3] [4]. These methodological differences explain much of the apparent gap [5].
2. The Trump 2025 claims: scale and skepticism
Trump administration releases for 2025 assert over 515,000 deportations since January 20 and project nearly 600,000 by year’s end, while also asserting a broader figure of 2 million exits that includes voluntary departures [1] [2]. Independent reporting flagged the same administrative numbers but cautioned that the “more than 2 million” count mixes categories—formal removals, border returns, and voluntary departures—which complicates direct comparison with prior administrations’ counts that often distinguish removals from returns [5]. The proximity of the 515k–600k figure to past annual records is notable but not definitive without underlying methodology [2].
3. The Biden record: steady removals, different priorities
Multiple assessments show the Biden administration carried out roughly 1.1 million deportations since FY2021 and emphasized removals of recent arrivals and public‑safety threats; monthly averages during some 2024 windows were far below peak Obama‑era months, such as a cited 12,660 per month for Feb–Apr 2024 versus a 2013 monthly average of 36,000 [3] [4]. Analysts observing ICE caseloads report that about two‑thirds of detained or arrested noncitizens had criminal histories in comparative studies, a stat used to justify enforcement choices but drawn from ICE arrest and detention datasets rather than the broader population of returns [6].
4. Who is included in “deported” or “left the U.S.” counts matters politically
Policy advocates on both sides selectively emphasize metrics that bolster their narratives: proponents of aggressive enforcement highlight removals and criminality rates to argue for prioritizing deportations; critics point to declines in formal monthly removal averages under Biden to argue enforcement slack [6] [4]. Administrative statements that fold voluntary departures and border returns into headline counts inflate totals relative to strictly defined ICE removals, which hinders apples‑to‑apples comparisons across administrations unless the underlying categories are published and standardized [1] [5].
5. Criminality and the composition of those removed — similar ratios, different framing
Comparative analyses show roughly two‑thirds of ICE arrests and many removals involve people with criminal histories under both Trump II and Biden, a point used to frame enforcement as focused on public‑safety risks [6]. However, the relative share of recent border arrivals versus long‑term residents differs by policy era, with Biden-era statements emphasizing expulsions and removals of recent crossers and Trump-era messaging emphasizing broader removals and voluntary departures; this compositional difference affects both legal implications and public perception [3] [6].
6. Timelines and fiscal year vs. calendar year distort totals
Comparisons are further muddled by timeframe mismatches: Trump 2017–2020 totals are usually reported on a fiscal‑year basis, while 2025 administration claims reference calendar days since inauguration. Biden-era totals spanning FY2021–FY2024 likewise mix fiscal cycles. Reported monthly averages (e.g., Feb–Apr 2024) provide a short window that can understate or overstate annualized activity depending on enforcement surges or lulls [3] [4]. Proper comparison requires consistent date ranges and category alignment [5].
7. Bottom line: comparable magnitudes but not comparable apples
Independent summaries indicate both administrations oversaw hundreds of thousands of removals across comparable multi‑year spans, with the Biden administration reaching roughly 1.1 million since FY2021 and Trump 2025 claims exceeding 500,000 removals in a single calendar year while also asserting broader exit totals over 2 million when including voluntary and returned migrants [3] [2] [1]. Readers seeking a definitive winner should insist on disaggregated data—separating formal removals, expedited returns/expulsions, and voluntary departures—along consistent timeframes to make an evidence‑based comparison [5].