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What is Trump's current approval rating compared to his average?
Executive summary
Current poll averages put President Trump roughly in the low‑to‑mid 40s for approval — for example, Nate Silver’s average shows 41.8% approve and 54.4% disapprove, a net of about −13 [1]. Multiple outlets report recent single polls lower than that (CNN/SSRS at 37%) and polling averages around 42% — roughly in line with his second‑term average near 42% reported by Forbes and others [2] [3] [4].
1. Recent headline numbers: where the most‑cited averages sit
Polling trackers and recent high‑profile polls give a consistent picture: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight‑adjacent Silver Bulletin lists 41.8% approval and a −13 net [1]; The New York Times daily average shows about 42% in its composite while the latest CNN/SSRS standalone poll reported a 37% approval — a new second‑term low in that series [2]. News outlets report similar mid‑40s or low‑40s figures depending on which tracker or poll they cite [5] [6].
2. How “current” compares to his recent average — second term context
Several pieces note that Trump’s approval in this window is roughly equal to his second‑term average of about 42% cited by Forbes and Morning Consult composites [3]. Decision Desk HQ and other averages show current approval at or slightly below that mark (around 42% in some aggregates; [5]; [1]0). In short: current averages are very near his second‑term mean rather than representing a dramatic departure from it [3].
3. Poll‑to‑poll variation and why numbers differ
Different pollsters sample different populations (adults vs. registered or likely voters), use varying question wording and weighting, and field surveys at different dates — producing scatter: Emerson’s Nov. survey showed a four‑point drop from October (45% to 41%) while Morning Consult and CNN/SSRS produced different point estimates [7] [4] [2]. Nate Silver’s average smooths those differences to a net of about −13, whereas single polls can show deeper dips into the high‑30s [1] [2].
4. Disapproval and net approval matter — and they are consistently negative
Most reporting emphasizes that disapproval exceeds approval in current polling. Silver’s average lists 54.4% disapprove (net −13) and Morning Consult and other trackers place Trump’s net approval commonly in the negative‑single digits to teens [1] [4]. Newsweek and other outlets cite Morning Consult showing a −10 net with 44% approve / 54% disapprove in mid‑November [4]. These net figures are a critical lens for political consequences even when raw approval percentages vary [1] [4].
5. Who is shifting: GOP, independents, and demographic nuance
Some polls report notable movement within Republican and independent cohorts: Emerson notes Republican approval declining from 91% to 79% in its series and independents moving toward disapproval; AP‑NORC shows Republican support for his government management falling from 81% in March to 68% in November [7] [8]. Those intra‑party declines help explain why averages have edged downward even if overall approval percentages may hover near his recent mean [7] [8].
6. Stakes and interpretation: why a few points matter politically
Analysts in The Hill and other outlets warn that sustained approval in the low‑40s and net negatives could be damaging for down‑ballot Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms — a 42% approval sustained into election season is flagged as politically harmful [5]. Conversely, some outlets note that this second‑term average is similar to recent presidents’ midterm troughs and that cross‑poll comparisons (and historical context) are necessary before declaring a long‑term trend [2] [3].
7. Limits of available reporting and competing viewpoints
Available sources show a cluster of values (mid‑30s to mid‑40s) but disagree on precise point estimates; Nate Silver’s composite and The New York Times average provide smoothing while single polls like CNN/SSRS or Morning Consult produce lower snapshots [1] [2] [4]. Some outlets emphasize the political danger of a sustained low approval (The Hill, Newsweek) while others note parity with his second‑term mean (Forbes) — both perspectives are supported by the cited polling data [5] [3] [4].
8. Bottom line for readers
The weight of current reporting: Trump’s approval is roughly in the low‑to‑mid 40s on poll averages (around 41–42%), with disapproval commonly in the mid‑50s and net approval negative (approximately −10 to −13 in recent trackers); single polls vary and have produced readings as low as 37% in CNN/SSRS [1] [2] [4]. That cluster places “current” approval very near his second‑term average rather than far above or below it [3].
Note: This summary uses only the polling coverage provided above; available sources do not mention long‑term modeled forecasts beyond the cited trackers and individual polls.