Fact check: Is the economy in the united states going to collapse under trump

1. Summary of the results

The question of economic collapse cannot be answered with a simple yes or no, but there are significant warning signs and challenges facing the U.S. economy:

• GDP declined by 0.3% in Q1 2025 ^{[1] [2]}
• Major financial institutions have raised recession probabilities:
• JP Morgan: 40%
• Moody's: 35%
• Goldman Sachs: 20% ^[3]
• Trump's trade policies, particularly broad tariffs of 10% on imports and 145% on Chinese goods, are creating economic uncertainty ^[2]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question lacks important historical and contextual perspective:

• Trump's previous term averaged 2.3% GDP growth, which was not historically exceptional ^[4]
• The White House maintains an optimistic stance, claiming "strong momentum" and predicting an "economic boom" ^[5]
• Global experts at Davos have highlighted broader international concerns beyond just U.S. domestic policy ^[6]

Specific Risk Factors identified by analysts include:

• Reciprocal global tariffs implemented in April 2025
• Cuts to social safety net programs (Medicaid, SNAP)
• Potential loss of dollar's global reserve currency status
• Increasing economic isolation ^[7]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The question itself contains inherent bias by:

• Suggesting a binary outcome (collapse/no collapse) when economic reality is more nuanced
• Attributing potential economic problems solely to Trump, when economic performance under both Trump and Biden administrations faced similar challenges like pandemic recovery and inflation ^[4]

Competing Narratives and Their Beneficiaries:

• The Trump administration benefits from promoting economic optimism and "strong momentum" narrative ^[5]
• Financial institutions and economic analysts benefit from maintaining credibility through more measured assessments ^[3]
• Opposition politicians and media benefit from emphasizing economic risks and negative indicators ^[7]

The reality appears to be that while there are serious economic challenges and increased recession risks, characterizing it as an inevitable "collapse" would be an oversimplification of a complex economic situation.