How did public approval and polling change over Trump's first year as president in 2025?

1. Early strength, then a downward trend — the broad arc

At the outset of his second presidency Trump’s job approval sat in the low‑to‑mid 40s in many aggregations and early flashes of stronger numbers appeared in some single polls, but by spring and into the fall the trend was downward: Pew found 40% approval near 100 days (April) while Gallup and other pollsters recorded declines through the summer and fall, culminating in November lows in several national surveys ^{[7] [4] [1]}.

2. How big was the fall — concrete poll snapshots

Polls do not all agree but converge on worse numbers by November: Gallup reported a new second‑term low of 36% approval with 60% disapproval in early November ^[1]. Reuters/Ipsos put approval at 38% and cited a nine‑point drop from a 47% January start ^[2]. Aggregators and averages such as RealClear and Silver Bulletin circulated mid‑November numbers around 41–43% approval and 55% disapproval depending on the window and poll mix ^{[8] [3]}.

3. Who moved — partisanship and the independent swing

Republican support stayed high; declines were concentrated among independents. Gallup’s July and August analyses showed independents’ approval plunged — by some measures 17 points — and that shift largely explains the overall slide even as Republican backing remained near the high 80s ^{[4] [9]}. That independent erosion showed up electorally: analysts and exit polls argued independents helped Democrats in several 2025 off‑year contests ^[10].

4. What issues correlate with the slide — economy and Epstein files

Multiple pollsters linked the approval decline to pocketbook concerns and scandals. Reuters/Ipsos explicitly cited cost‑of‑living worries and the Epstein files as drivers of the drop to 38% approval ^[2]. Other outlets and surveys found voters increasingly rated the administration’s economic stewardship poorly and the economy/cost‑of‑living repeatedly emerged as the top issue on voters’ minds in 2025 contests ^{[11] [12]}.

5. Geographic detail — underwater in many states he won

State‑level and aggregator summaries showed Trump’s net approval negative in a growing number of states he carried in 2024; The Economist/YouGov and other state cross‑tabs produced underwater ratings in most states, and Newsweek reported negative approval in 20 states Trump won ^[6]. This geographic slippage matters electorally for midterms and for perceptions of mandate.

6. Limits and disagreements in the record

Polls disagree on magnitude and timing. Some single polls showed short‑lived spikes — the White House cited a September poll claiming 55% approval — but those single‑poll results contrast sharply with multiple independent national trackers and reputable pollsters that show sub‑45% approval ^{[13] [8]}. Fact‑checking outlets noted that claims of “highest poll numbers” in late 2025 were false when compared with January figures and multi‑poll aggregates ^[14].

7. Electoral implications and contemporary signals

Off‑year elections in November 2025 served as an early referendum: Democrats won several high‑profile races, and post‑vote analysis and polls suggested Trump’s standing and economic messaging contributed to those outcomes, particularly with independents and in suburban areas ^{[15] [10]}. Polls in late November also showed Democrats more motivated and a Democratic advantage on some generic ballots, signaling risk for Republicans heading into 2026 ^{[16] [12]}.

8. Final takeaways for readers

Across multiple reputable trackers the narrative is consistent: approval began the term higher than his first‑term averages but slid through 2025 to sit in the high‑30s/low‑40s with disapproval in the mid‑50s, driven largely by independents and economic concerns and reinforced by state‑level declines ^{[7] [1] [2] [6]}. Sources disagree on exact points and short‑term blips; readers should weigh pollster methodology, sample (adults vs. likely voters), and aggregation windows when interpreting any single headline number ^{[8] [3] [14]}.