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Fact check: Has trump decreased inflation and cost of living in his second term
Executive Summary
President Trump has not demonstrably decreased inflation or the cost of living in his second term; multiple analyses show tariffs and related policies are contributing to higher prices for goods and are cited by businesses and consumers as a meaningful driver of recent price increases. Evidence from Federal Reserve, business surveys, consumer price reports, and polling converges: tariffs are boosting prices, grocery and specific commodity costs have risen, and households widely report higher living costs [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. What supporters claim versus what independent measures record
Supporters of the president assert inflation is defeated and living costs are easing, but independent price measures and Federal Reserve-affiliated analyses show ongoing price pressures, especially for imported goods affected by tariffs. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis quantified tariffs as adding roughly 0.5 percentage points to headline PCE and 0.4 points to core PCE between June and August, indicating a measurable contribution to inflation in the months analyzed [1]. That quantified impact contrasts directly with rhetoric asserting inflation is over, creating a gap between political claims and statistical contributions from policy levers.
2. Tariffs as a principal proximate cause of price rise
Multiple sources identify tariffs as a direct upward pressure on consumer prices. A St. Louis Fed analysis links new tariffs to a sizable share of recent inflation, while surveys of CFOs and financial decision-makers estimate tariffs account for about one-third of companies’ price growth this year, implying pass-through to consumers [1] [4]. These convergent findings across monetary-research and private-sector surveys strengthen the inference that trade policy has been a proximate cause of higher goods inflation during the second term, even if it is not the only driver.
3. Consumer-facing price realities contradict optimistic narratives
Retail and consumer price data show ongoing increases in everyday items that affect household budgets: grocery prices and commodity categories such as coffee have seen marked year-over-year growth, with reporting that coffee rose 21% and groceries experienced their largest non-pandemic jump in a decade in recent months [2]. A large survey for The Guardian found 74% of Americans reported higher monthly household costs and often attributed these to current policies including tariffs, underscoring that many households perceive tangible cost-of-living deterioration [3].
4. Business leaders’ assessments and macroeconomic interpretations
Business executives and finance leaders provide a complementary angle: the Duke/FRB executive survey and other corporate CFO reports point to tariffs driving a meaningful share of price increases and complicating supply chains. Corporate pass-through of tariff-induced cost increases to consumers is a mechanism stressed by these respondents, and their aggregate estimates suggest that absent tariffs, inflation could be materially lower—supporting a narrative that policy choices are exacerbating price pressures [4].
5. Market reactions and broader economic indicators paint a cautionary picture
Market commentary and economic analyses note that the combination of tariffs, exchange-rate movements, and uncertainty has produced volatile reactions in equities, bonds, and currencies, with commentators warning of slower growth and higher inflation risk. The Economist-style market summaries and coverage of tariff legal challenges indicate investor and market concern about stagflationary dynamics, where tariffs both raise prices and impair growth prospects—an outcome that would worsen cost-of-living concerns even if headline inflation numbers fluctuate [5] [6].
6. Political context, legal battles, and potential agendas shaping narratives
The debate over tariffs sits amid legal challenges to presidential tariff authority and political messaging that emphasizes short-term electoral benefits. Coverage noting the Supreme Court’s impending review and the administration’s defense of tariffs frames tariffs as both economic policy and political instrument, which may bias some messaging toward minimizing inflationary effects. Observers should treat executive claims of “defeating inflation” as politically motivated narratives that conflict with quantitative analyses cited above [6] [1].
7. What the evidence does not settle and remaining uncertainties
Available analyses focus heavily on tariffs and recent months’ data; they do not definitively isolate all other inflation drivers—such as energy, housing, or global supply shocks—or fully quantify medium-term fiscal impacts. The Federal Reserve’s PCE-based estimates are precise for the window studied but do not prove tariffs are the sole or permanent cause of rising costs. Key gaps include long-term pass-through rates, effects on services prices, and regional variance, leaving room for additional study to attribute total cost-of-living changes across all households [1] [7].
8. Bottom line: did Trump decrease inflation and cost of living in his second term?
Based on the available multi-source evidence, the answer is no: tariff policies and related developments have contributed to higher consumer prices and many households report increased living costs, while business surveys and Fed-affiliated analysis quantify tariffs’ inflationary contribution this year [1] [2] [4] [3]. Political claims that inflation has been defeated run counter to current measurements and perceptions; however, attribution remains partly contested and contingent on future data and the resolution of legal and policy choices [6] [5].