Trump job performance
Executive summary
Public polling in late 2025 shows President Trump’s job approval running below 50%, with multiple national surveys clustering in the high 30s-to-low 40s: Economist/YouGov reports 38% approve and 57% disapprove (net -19) [1] [2], Gallup shows 41% approve and 54% disapprove in mid‑October [3], and several other polls put him at roughly 40–42% approval [4] [5]. Economic data and commentary from mainstream outlets highlight weakening job growth, rising unemployment and sectoral declines — lines of criticism that pollsters and editorial writers link to his policies such as tariffs [6] [7] [8].
1. Approval numbers: a consistent but not monolithic picture
Multiple polling organizations across October–November 2025 show Trump’s approval below majority levels: Economist/YouGov records 38% approval and 57% disapproval [1] [2], Gallup reports 41% approve and 54% disapprove [3], and Emerson finds 41% approval, 49% disapproval among voters [5]. Forbes synthesizes similar Reuters/Ipsos and YouGov figures placing approval near 40–42% and disapproval in the high 50s [4]. Polling varies week to week and by sample (registered voters vs. all adults), but the aggregate snapshot in late 2025 is clearly unfavorable for Trump [1] [3] [5].
2. Partisanship drives the headline numbers
All the polls show sharp partisan splits: Gallup notes approval among Republicans at roughly 91% while independents and Democrats are far less approving (33% independents; 6% Democrats) [3]. UMass Lowell reports an 88% approval rate among Republicans versus 30% among independents in its YouGov‑based release [9]. The partisan structure means national approval averages reflect base consolidation rather than broad cross‑cutting support [9] [3].
3. Demographic and subgroup gaps matter politically
Economist/YouGov polling indicates particularly poor ratings among women (31% approve, 64% disapprove) and working‑class earners under $50,000 (34% approve, 62% disapprove), producing large negative nets in those groups [2] [10]. These subgroup patterns are politically consequential for midterms and 2026 campaigning because they signal where persuasion or mobilization pressure points exist [2] [10].
4. Economy and jobs: media and analysts link policy to pain
Reporting from Fortune, The New Republic and the New York Times describes weakening labor market indicators during Trump’s second‑term first months: a sharp slowdown in hiring, factory losses, lower help‑wanted ads, stagnating payroll growth and a higher unemployment rate in some months (e.g., unemployment tick to 4.3% and small monthly job gains cited) [6] [7]. Opinion and investigative pieces attribute much of the strain to tariff policy and trade moves, arguing tariffs are reducing private‑sector demand and hurting manufacturing hiring [6] [8].
5. White House messaging counters with selective wins
The White House highlights policy achievements and favorable metrics — for example, immigration enforcement and declines in some immigration‑related figures — to argue the administration is delivering on priorities [11]. Those claims are presented as administration successes even while independent pollsters and business reporters focus on macroeconomic headwinds and uneven labor market performance [11] [6].
6. How polling and economic reporting interact — causation vs. correlation
Polls and economic stories are being read together: many outlets and commentators frame falling approval as a reaction to job‑market weakness and policy choices like tariffs [6] [8]. That linkage is interpretive in the press — polls show correlation between economic anxiety and disapproval, but the sources here do not prove a direct causal chain; they document concurrent trends and competing explanations [1] [6] [8].
7. Competing narratives and the limits of available reporting
Sources disagree about magnitude and causes: poll aggregates point to a steady sub‑50 approval rating but differ modestly by pollster and timing [1] [3] [5]. Economic journalism and opinion pieces differ on whether weakness is policy‑driven (tariffs) or reflects broader macro forces and timing [6] [7] [8]. Available sources do not mention long‑term historical comparisons beyond selected Gallup and YouGov context (not found in current reporting).
8. What to watch next
Track weekly and monthly polls for persistence of current nets (YouGov’s multi‑week slump and Gallup’s mid‑October snapshot are already notable) and upcoming jobs reports for turning points: YouGov flagged multiple weeks of net approval at -15 or worse [1], and news outlets point to October/November job releases as key indicators that could shift public views [1] [7].
Limitations: this analysis cites only the provided reporting and polls; it does not incorporate any additional datasets or subsequent polls beyond these sources [1] [3] [5] [4] [6] [8] [2] [11].