How did public opinion and approval ratings shift during Trump’s second term and what events drove those changes?
Executive summary
Public approval for President Trump declined from a roughly even start in January 2025 toward low‑40s and high‑30s by late 2025, with many national trackers showing approval near 36–41% and disapproval in the high 50s to 60% range (Gallup 36% approve, 60% disapprove; Civiqs 39%/57%) [1] [2]. Polling firms and analysts attribute those falls to economic worries (prices/cost of living), negative developments tied to the Jeffrey Epstein files and related scandals, and erosion among independents and some Republicans (Reuters, NYT, Forbes) [3] [4] [5].
1. Early second‑term baseline: modestly better than first term, but weak historically
Trump began his second term with approval broadly in the mid‑40s in some trackers (47% in Reuters/Ipsos’ early second‑term benchmark) but also with historically low starting points compared with modern presidents, meaning modest swings mattered and were closely watched by pollsters [3] [6]. Aggregators show a range of house‑effects and firm‑by‑firm differences that make any single number misleading; Nate Silver’s tracker notes net numbers but emphasizes variation across pollsters [7].
2. The measured decline: from stability to a late‑year slide
After months of relative stability in mid‑2025, approval began trending downward from mid‑September through November, with multiple outlets documenting new second‑term lows: Gallup recorded a drop to 36% approval and 60% disapproval in late November; Reuters/Ipsos put approval at 38%; CNN and Economist/YouGov reported similar sub‑40 readings [1] [3] [5]. Civiqs’ running tracker placed approval around 39% and disapproval at 57% through Dec. 3 [2].
3. Who shifted and why: independents and some Republicans pulled away
The most consistent signal across polls was a weakening among independents and soft Republicans. The New York Times highlighted a fall in independent approval to 31% in a Marquette University poll, down from 41% months earlier; Gallup showed independents slipping to about 25% approval in its late‑November read [4] [1]. Reuters emphasized falling Republican enthusiasm (from 87% to 82% in its mid‑November snapshot) even as core GOP support remained sizable [3].
4. Issue drivers: prices/economy, Epstein files and presidential conduct
Reporters and pollsters point to concrete events and issue areas linked with the drop. Reuters and other outlets cite public dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the high cost of living and growing negative reaction to revelations around the Jeffrey Epstein files as key factors in the late‑year slump [3]. The New York Times and other analysts also tied declines to immigration and economic perceptions, with Fox and other polls showing only about 38% approval on economic stewardship [6] [4].
5. Pollster disagreement and measurement caveats
Not all polls read the same way. Some partisan or smaller polls showed milder erosion (I&I/TIPP reported a net of –3 points in one limited sample), while trackers like Nate Silver’s model and The Economist found net approvals substantially negative [8] [7] [9]. Polling house effects, differing question wordings, sampling frames and timing around fast‑moving stories (Epstein materials, economic reports) produced the spread of numbers seen across Reuters, Gallup, Civiqs, CNN, YouGov and others [7] [1] [2].
6. Geographic and demographic splits: predictable polarization
State and subgroup data show very familiar patterns: high approval in solidly Republican states (Wyoming, Idaho) and very low marks in Democratic strongholds (New York, Hawaii), while college‑educated white men and some suburban voters showed deterioration in mid‑ to late‑2025 [10] [11] [5]. These cleavages reinforce that national averages mask substantial regional divergence [11] [10].
7. What the polling implies politically — and what isn’t in the reporting
Taken together, trackers indicate a politically vulnerable mid‑term posture as of late 2025: approval underwater on average and key swing groups moving away [1] [2]. Available sources do not mention definitive causal attribution beyond correlation with economic sentiment and high‑profile scandals; they report associations and expert interpretation rather than experimental proof of causation [3] [4].
Limitations: poll results vary notably by firm and timing; some outlets emphasize Republican resilience while others flag a broader erosion. All factual claims above are drawn from the cited polls and reporting [1] [3] [4] [2] [5] [7].