How did Trump's support among seniors change between the 2020 and 2024 elections?
Executive summary
Exit polls and post‑election analyses show Donald Trump improved his standing with older voters in 2024 compared with 2020: he won a majority of voters 65+ (52% to 47% in one exit‑poll metric) and carried seniors in key states, and analysts link that to turnout and issue priorities like the economy and inflation [1] [2]. Pew and AARP reporting say turnout patterns — a higher share of 2020 Trump voters turned out again in 2024, plus Trump gained among some demographic groups — helped translate modest shifts in senior vote shares into a decisive national outcome [3] [4] [1].
1. How big was the senior swing toward Trump?
National and state reporting indicate a tangible, though not monolithic, shift: AARP’s analysis of exit polling reports Trump received 52% of the vote among people 65 and older versus 47% for Harris, and Trump carried older men by a much larger margin while older women leaned Democratic in some metrics [1]. Brookings and other vote‑count summaries show Trump won roughly three million more votes nationwide in 2024 than in 2020, a gain that included stronger performance among older cohorts in several battleground states [2].
2. Turnout and composition mattered as much as persuasion
Multiple analyses emphasize turnout differences rather than wholesale re‑education of seniors. Pew and AP analyses found that a higher share of 2020 Trump voters turned out again in 2024 than 2020 Biden voters did, and that voters who sat out in 2020 but voted in 2024 broke for Trump — dynamics that amplified modest senior shifts into larger vote‑count gains [3] [4]. Brookings also notes that part of Trump’s increase in votes came from getting more Trump voters to the polls and from Democratic turnout drops in some areas [2].
3. Subgroups within “seniors” moved differently
Analysts caution against treating seniors as a single bloc. AARP highlights that voters aged 50–64 leaned more to the right than those 65+, and that gender intersected with age: Trump won older men by double‑digit margins, while older women preferred Harris in some exit polling [1]. This means the overall 65+ majority for Trump masks variation by age band, sex, and possibly region — data that are unevenly reported in national summaries [1].
4. Why seniors shifted: economic anxiety and policy priorities
Commentators and poll analysts link senior shifts to pocketbook and program concerns: many older voters named the economy, jobs and inflation as top issues; Social Security and Medicare concerns were highlighted in state surveys as reasons seniors were receptive to Trump’s messaging [1]. Pew’s broader analysis likewise ties Trump’s gains to issue salience and targeted turnout efforts, including among infrequent voters whom the campaign prioritized [4] [3].
5. Geographic nuances: seniors helped flip places, not every place
State‑level work from Brookings and local outlets shows Trump’s gains among older voters had uneven geography. Trump increased vote shares in many counties and flipped jurisdictions that had supported Biden in 2020, and analysts say part of Trump’s increased raw vote total came from both turnout and converts in particular states [2] [5]. California reporting, for instance, notes mixed performance and local variation that undercut a uniform national story [6].
6. What the sources disagree about or don’t say
Sources agree Trump improved his position with older voters overall, but they differ in emphasis. AARP centers exit polling showing a narrow 65+ majority for Trump and gender splits [1]. Pew stresses turnout and compositional effects as central to Trump’s gains across groups, including seniors [3] [4]. Available sources do not mention a unified national percentage point shift for "seniors" broken down by precise 2020→2024 comparisons beyond the exit‑poll snapshots and turnout analyses; they also do not provide a single, definitive cross‑study estimate of how many percentage points seniors shifted overall (not found in current reporting).
7. Bottom line for readers
Evidence from exit polls and post‑election studies shows seniors in 2024 were more likely to back Trump than they were in 2020 in key measures, and that this shift — amplified by differential turnout and geographic concentration — helped tilt the election outcome [1] [3] [2]. However, seniors are heterogeneous: age subgroups, gender, and local turnout patterns produced variation, and analysts emphasize turnout/composition as central drivers of the change rather than simple mass persuasion [1] [4].