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IS TRUMP DOING BETTER THAN BIDEN DID?
Executive Summary
The short answer: on most objective economic metrics assembled by independent analysts, Biden’s presidency (2021–2024) outperformed Trump’s first term (2017–2021) on jobs, post‑pandemic GDP growth, manufacturing gains, and social measures such as child poverty and health coverage; Trump retains advantages on some sentiment and inflation-era wage comparisons. Public perceptions are mixed—many Americans now attribute current conditions to Trump—so political impressions diverge from multi‑indicator economic comparisons [1] [2] [3]. This analysis pulls together polling on attribution and multi‑indicator economic scorecards to show where data and perceptions align and where they do not.
1. Why economists say “Biden wins more indicators” — the data behind the headlines
A detailed cross‑indicator comparison published in mid‑2024 finds Biden leads on total jobs added (≈16 million vs. 6.7 million), stronger post‑pandemic GDP growth (6.1% in 2021 then steady 2.5–2.9%), manufacturing expansion, reductions in child poverty, and expanded health‑insurance coverage, while Trump outperformed on some pre‑pandemic household income peaks, faster wage growth relative to inflation during his term, and slightly larger S&P 500 total gains over his full term [1] [3]. These metrics reflect different starting conditions: Biden inherited a pandemic crisis and mounted a recovery, generating a large net jobs gain and strong 2021 growth; Trump’s term featured lower unemployment pre‑pandemic and stronger consumer sentiment that later collapsed with COVID. The multi‑metric approach shows no single “winner” across every measure, but a clear tilt toward better distributional and job outcomes in Biden’s years [1].
2. Where Trump’s record still shows strength — wages, sentiment, and the pre‑pandemic baseline
Analysts acknowledge that Trump’s era produced faster nominal wage gains relative to inflation in some quarters, higher consumer sentiment, and a stronger pre‑pandemic household income peak, which helps explain why some voters feel better off recalling those years [1]. Stock‑market returns over Trump’s full term were also competitive, and certain housing and ownership metrics trended favorably before the pandemic shock. These strengths are concentrated in the 2017–2019 period, shaped by tax cuts and monetary conditions that buoyed asset prices and consumer confidence. That pattern feeds a political narrative emphasizing everyday “vibes” and pocketbook memories—an important distinction between macroeconomic aggregates and perceived economic wellbeing [1].
3. Public perception vs. indicators — Americans credit Trump more for current conditions
Polling in 2025 found 46% of Americans attribute current U.S. economic conditions to Trump, while 27% name Biden, indicating a majority view that the economy is more associated with Trump’s influence [2]. Approval trackers show Trump’s approval in the low‑to‑mid 40s at comparable points, slightly different from Biden’s historical averages, and congressional approval remains low—which frames how voters interpret economic news [4] [5]. This divergence—data favoring Biden on many hard indicators, but public attribution favoring Trump—reflects both recency effects and political messaging: inflation memories, media framing, and campaign narratives can outweigh multifaceted statistical assessments when people assess who “made” or “fixed” the economy [2] [1].
4. Why comparisons are messy — differing starting points, shocks, and policy mixes
Comparing a pre‑pandemic presidency to one that led recovery from a global pandemic is inherently complex: Trump’s term ended with a sudden pandemic recession while Biden’s term began amid recovery, so growth and job gains are measured from different baselines [6] [7]. Inflation trajectories, fiscal deficits, supply‑chain disruptions, and global events like energy shocks and geopolitical conflict all confound simple “who did better” statements. Analysts note both presidencies oversaw rising deficits and high household net worth even while real wages lagged at times, showing policy effects interact with global forces, meaning neither administration’s outcomes can be solely credited to White House decisions [7] [6].
5. Bottom line for the claim “Is Trump doing better than Biden did?” — a balanced conclusion
Measured against a broad set of quantitative economic indicators curated by major analyses, the claim that Trump is objectively doing better than Biden did is not supported across the majority of metrics; Biden’s tenure shows stronger cumulative job creation, recovery‑era GDP growth, manufacturing gains, and social‑safety outcomes, while Trump retains advantages on some wage/inflation snapshots and sentiment measures [1] [3]. However, public perception currently favors Trump as the more responsible actor for today’s economy, and differing baselines, shocks, and policy interactions mean reasonable analysts can highlight different “winners” depending on which metrics they prioritize. The data-driven verdict: Biden leads on many substantive economic outcomes, but political narratives and selective indicators leave room for competing interpretations [1] [2] [7].