Trump approval vs Obama approval in second term
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Executive summary
Donald Trump’s approval during his second term has generally trended in the high‑30s to low‑40s across major trackers, hitting Gallup lows near 36–37% and aggregate measures near the low‑40s, while reporting supplied here does not provide a definitive numeric average for Barack Obama’s second‑term approval to make a precise apples‑to‑apples comparison [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. Polls differ widely by vendor and timing, so any comparison must account for sampling, timing and “house effects” that skew poll-to-poll results [4] [6].
1. Where Trump stood numerically in his second term
By several prominent trackers Trump’s second‑term approval has been low: Gallup reported a drop to 36% as a new second‑term low with 60% disapproving in one wave, and other Gallup waves showed mid‑ to high‑30s averages [1] [2], Reuters/Ipsos and other national surveys found mid‑40s to low‑40s approval at different moments with recent Reuters/Ipsos and Gallup waves reporting near 40–41% in some periods [7] [1], and aggregator Nate Silver’s model put Trump’s overall approval in the low‑40s (roughly 42.8% in one aggregation) while tracking net approval that dipped to around -15 at a November low before modest recovery [3] [4].
2. How poll variability and timing complicate direct comparison
Different pollsters tell different stories: Rasmussen, Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, Morning Consult and tracking aggregators produce divergent point estimates because of methodology, cadence and weighting choices, and Silver explicitly warns of house effects and wide disagreement across surveys when measuring Trump [4] [8]. That means a single headline number for “Trump’s second‑term approval” masks a range of estimates — Gallup’s low‑to‑mid‑30s, Reuters/Ipsos’s low‑40s, and aggregators averaging in the low‑40s — all of which moved with political events like the government shutdown and foreign‑policy flashes [9] [1] [7].
3. Partisan splits and issue ratings underpin the headline numbers
Survey detail shows Trump’s approval remains strong with Republicans but has eroded among independents and some swing demographics; Gallup found Republican approval falling to the low‑80s while independents’ approval slipped into the mid‑20s, and issue‑by‑issue ratings sometimes exceeded or lagged his overall job rating (crime and healthcare rated higher, while immigration, Middle East policy and the economy showed notable declines) [1] [2]. Those cross‑cuts matter because presidents with narrow coalitions can sustain a stable headline number even as independents or swing groups move enough to influence midterm and policy outcomes [1] [2].
4. How Trump compares to modern two‑term presidents — and the data gap on Obama
Several outlets characterize Trump’s second‑term approval as historically low compared with recent two‑term presidents, with comparisons noting Trump’s ratings are below many peers at similar points in their second terms [7] [2]. The provided reporting includes a RealClearPolitics comparison page that charts second‑term approval for Trump, Obama and Bush but the specific numeric average for Obama’s second term is not quoted in the sources supplied here, so a precise numeric side‑by‑side average cannot be asserted from the material at hand [5] [10]. Statista and historical trackers show how presidents’ approval trajectories can converge or diverge by month-in-office, which underscores the need to align timing when comparing any two presidents [10].
5. Alternate readings and the takeaway for readers
Analysts such as Nate Silver note modest recovery from a late‑November low even as other pollsters recorded second‑term lows in late 2025, meaning short‑term event dynamics (shutdowns, foreign incidents) and pollster choice can change the narrative quickly [3] [4]. In sum: Trump’s second‑term approval is demonstrably lower than many historical peers by several measures and has hit multiple second‑term lows in late 2025, but the supplied reporting lacks a single, contemporaneous Obama second‑term numeric to make a crisp statistical comparison without consulting the original multi‑poll archives [2] [1] [4] [5].