How did UK fact-checkers evaluate the £350 million-a-week Brexit claim?
Executive summary
UK fact-checkers overwhelmingly judged the Vote Leave “£350 million a week” slogan to be misleading or false: the figure represented a gross ONS number not the UK's net payment after the rebate and receipts, and independent checkers such as Full Fact, broadcasters’ fact-check teams and the UK Statistics Authority repeatedly rejected the bus claim as inaccurate [1] [2] referendum-campaigns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">[3].
1. How the £350m figure was produced — a gross number, not net cash leaving the UK
The £350m figure originated from a Treasury/ONS gross estimate of UK contributions in the Pink Book and was promoted by Vote Leave as the weekly sum “sent to Brussels,” but fact‑checkers pointed out it ignored the UK’s budget rebate and EU spending returned to the UK, so it did not reflect money the UK actually “sent” or lost [4] [5] [3].
2. The fact‑checking verdicts — “misleading”, “wrong”, and “indefensible”
Full Fact, ITV News, the BBC and independent outlets gave a consistent verdict: the correct, comparable net figure was closer to about £250m per week (or roughly £12–13bn a year after the rebate), not £350m, and the UK Statistics Authority called ministers’ use of the £350m figure a misuse of statistics — language fact‑checkers echoed in labelling the bus claim misleading or wrong [2] [1] [6] [3].
3. The technical objections fact‑checkers emphasised
Fact‑checkers focused on specific technical points: the EU rebate is deducted before the UK’s net payment is calculated, EU spending in the UK returns some funds to UK recipients, and other payments (grants, receipts) further reduce the net outflow — all reasons why the “we send £350m a week” framing was factually inaccurate [1] [7] [5].
4. Responses from Leave campaigners and political context noted by checkers
Fact‑checking reports recorded that Vote Leave and figures like Boris Johnson continued to stand by or defend the slogan despite rebuttals, sometimes arguing the number was a “gross” figure or later seeking to reframe it; broadcasters and the UK Statistics Authority publicly criticised those defenses as “misleading” or a “clear misuse of official statistics” [4] [8] [9].
5. Effectiveness and limits of fact‑checking during the referendum
Multiple analyses of the referendum’s fact‑checking ecosystem found that, despite repeated and unequivocal fact‑checks, a large share of the public still believed the £350m claim: by mid‑June 2016, polls showed many voters accepted the slogan as true, a point scholars used to question the real-world impact of corrections even when checkers reached a clear consensus [10].
6. Longer‑term assessments and retrospective fact‑checks
Subsequent reviews and academic work reiterated the same verdicts: the £350m claim was “founded on shaky maths” and has been repeatedly debunked by independent fact‑checkers and think‑tanks such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies, with commentators noting the slogan’s persistence in political rhetoric despite the factual record [11] [1] [5].
7. What fact‑checkers made plain — and what they did not claim
Fact‑checkers were explicit about the arithmetic and methodological errors behind the £350m claim and consistently labelled the slogan misleading or wrong; they did not, however, venture beyond the available accounting evidence to opine on voters’ motives or on hypothetical budget choices had the figure been accurate — such broader political assessments lie outside the remit of the numerical fact‑checks themselves [1] [3] [10].