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Fact check: Are there regional differences (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) in age-based support for abolishing the monarchy?
Executive Summary
The data assembled shows clear regional and generational splits on support for the British monarchy: England remains the strongest base for monarchist sentiment, while Scotland and Wales show majorities favoring an elected head of state, and younger cohorts are far more likely to back abolition or a republic. National surveys since 2024 record a historic low in overall attachment to the monarchy, with 51% viewing it as important and 15% explicitly supporting abolition, but the pattern varies noticeably by nation and age [1] [2] [3].
1. The headline numbers that change the story — support is down, abolition is small but visible
Major national surveys in September 2025 and earlier polling establish a new baseline: overall support for the monarchy has dropped to about 51% who say the institution is "very" or "quite" important, while roughly 15% say they support abolishing the monarchy outright [1] [4] [3]. These figures signal a long-term downward trend documented by the British Social Attitudes series and reinforced by multiple media reports. The 51% figure is the lowest on record, making the current debate less about an immediate referendum and more about shifting attitudes that could influence politics over the medium term. The surveys present abolition as a minority position nationally but a growing one, particularly where regional and age splits intersect [2].
2. Regional fault lines — Scotland and Wales tilt toward a republic, England holds the crown
Consistent reporting from September 2025 shows majorities in Scotland (about 59%) and Wales (about 64%) favoring an elected head of state rather than a monarch, a stark contrast with England where monarchist sentiment remains much stronger [1] [4] [3]. Those regional majorities are large enough to be politically meaningful: the data implies that republican arguments resonate more strongly in devolved nations, reflecting divergent national identities and constitutional preferences. English and British-identifying respondents lean pro-monarchy, meaning any UK-wide solution would confront simultaneously rising republican sentiment in parts of the union and entrenched monarchism in England, creating a sharp constitutional asymmetry [4] [3].
3. Young versus old — a generational schism that changes the arithmetic
The surveys record a clear generational divide: younger cohorts show substantially higher support for an elected head of state or republic, while older cohorts remain the main defenders of the monarchy. The British Social Attitudes data show 59% of people aged 16–34 favoring an elected head of state, contrasted with 76% support for the monarchy among those aged 55 and over [2]. Earlier polling from March 2024 by Savanta already indicated that under-45s preferred an elected head of state for the first time, suggesting this generational trend is durable rather than a one-off fluctuation [5]. This age gap has policy implications: as younger voters become a larger share of the electorate, aggregate support levels could continue to shift.
4. Northern Ireland complicates the map — split loyalties and age-dependent leanings
Northern Ireland presents a more mixed picture where constitutional identity is tightly linked to political affiliation. A 2023 survey found 46% would vote to become a republic and 42% to remain a monarchy, with pronounced age variation: 48% of 18–24 year olds favored a republic while 48% of those 65+ backed the monarchy [6]. This reflects Northern Ireland’s unique political landscape, where national identity, community allegiance, and party politics interact with attitudes to the Crown. The data imply that Northern Ireland cannot be read as a simple extension of English monarchism or Scottish republicanism; instead, it is a contested terrain where age and identity produce an even split that could tip with demographic change.
5. Alternative polling reinforces trends but warns about framing effects
Additional polls and targeted studies corroborate the broad patterns but remind readers that question wording and scenario framing matter. A Norstat poll found that presenting independence as paired with a Scottish republic raised support for independence (from 54% to 59%), demonstrating how constitutional proposals change preferences when tied to broader political outcomes [7]. That underlines a methodological caveat: some shifts toward republicanism may depend on presenting a clear alternative (elected head of state plus independence) rather than asking about the monarchy in isolation. Analysts and policymakers should therefore treat headline percentages cautiously and consider how concrete proposals or political campaigns could alter public responses.
6. What the data leave out — turnout, party politics, and future trajectories
The surveys provide robust snapshots but omit critical operational details that determine real-world outcomes: voter turnout by age and nation, party positions on monarchy reform, and the sequencing of constitutional reform are not resolved in these figures [1] [2]. The numbers show where opinion sits today, not whether a legal change is imminent. Political mobilization, party strategies, and demographic shifts matter more than static majorities. The evidence points to a steadily changing landscape — strong regional and generational divisions — but does not by itself establish inevitability; translating these attitudes into constitutional change would require sustained political movement and electoral dynamics that these polls only partially capture [5] [6].