How have unauthorized‑immigrant populations in Texas, Florida, and Minnesota changed year‑to‑year since 2019 according to major data sources?
Executive summary
The unauthorized‑immigrant populations of Texas and Florida rose noticeably after 2019, contributing to the national rebound in unauthorized immigration that accelerated through 2022–2023; Minnesota’s unauthorized population grew too but by a much smaller absolute amount (about +40,000 from 2019 to 2023) [1] [2] [3]. Major research centers (Migration Policy Institute, Pew Research Center, CMS/DHS data compilations) show a common pattern: a decade‑long plateau ending around 2019, followed by steady increases and a pronounced surge in 2023 driven mainly by unauthorized inflows [1] [2] [4].
1. Texas — big absolute increases concentrated after 2019, statewide shares among the highest
Texas is repeatedly identified as one of the states with the largest unauthorized populations and as a locus of post‑2019 growth: MPI and Pew place Texas among the six states that drove national increases, and Pew’s state breakdowns show Texas had one of the highest shares of households with unauthorized immigrants in 2023 [1] [2] [4]. Analysts describe the period from 2019 into 2022 as one of growth in Texas, and 2023 appears to have added another sizable inflow nationally that included Texas, contributing to MPI’s estimate that the unauthorized population grew by roughly 3 million between 2019 and mid‑2023 [1] [4].
2. Florida — sustained growth, part of the handful of states with rising totals
Florida is likewise named among the states with meaningful increases since 2019, with Pew and other summaries listing Florida as one of the six states where the unauthorized population rose from 2019 to 2022 and as a state with a high share of unauthorized workers in 2022–2023 [4] [2]. MPI and Pew both place Florida among the handful of large‑population states that accounted for much of the national rebound; while exact year‑to‑year state counts vary by method, the consistent signal across major sources is upward movement in Florida after 2019 [1] [2].
3. Minnesota — modest growth, measurable but much smaller in scale
Minnesota’s unauthorized population grew by an estimated 40,000 between 2019 and 2023, reaching roughly 130,000 people in 2023 according to Pew’s analysis reported locally in Axios Twin Cities and reflected in MPI/Migration Policy state profiles [3] [5]. Compared with Texas and Florida, Minnesota’s increase is modest in absolute numbers though significant relative to its baseline and concentrated in more recent years, with analysts noting a larger share of recent arrivals among the state’s unauthorized population [3].
4. What “year‑to‑year” means in available data — methods and limits
Year‑to‑year comparisons rely on estimates built from surveys (the American Community Survey), augmented imputations (MPI’s methodology), administrative counts, and DHS/OHS statistics; Pew, MPI and CMS each use slightly different methods and reference periods, so precise annual swings can differ across sources even as the broad direction aligns [2] [1] [6] [7]. MPI reports a jump from roughly 10.7 million in 2019 to about 13.7 million by mid‑2023 (average multi‑year growth rather than single‑calendar‑year steps), Pew documents growth through 2022 and a record estimate for 2023, and DHS/OHS offers administrative state‑level series through 2022—none produce perfectly matched annual state‑by‑state time series for every single year after 2019 [1] [2] [7].
5. The pattern: plateau to rebound to surge, with local variation
Across major analyses the pattern is clear: after a long decline and near‑stagnation up to 2019, unauthorized populations began increasing again by 2021–2022 in several big states (including Texas and Florida), with a larger national inflow and record‑high estimates in 2023 that raised counts further; Minnesota joined that trend but at a far smaller absolute scale (+40,000 from 2019–2023) [4] [2] [1] [3]. Local variation matters: some counties and metros saw larger inflows while others lagged, so state totals reflect heterogeneous underlying year‑to‑year dynamics [8] [1].
6. Bottom line — direction is consistent, exact year‑to‑year magnitudes vary by source
Major sources agree on the direction since 2019: Texas and Florida experienced substantive increases in unauthorized populations, and Minnesota experienced smaller but measurable growth; however, the precise year‑to‑year counts and timing depend on the dataset and method—Pew, MPI and DHS/OHS provide the authoritative but not identical pictures, and analysts caution that 2024–2025 adjustments and methodological differences will continue to refine state‑level annual estimates [1] [2] [7].