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HOW MANY undocumented people have entered USA since trumps second term
Executive summary
There is no single authoritative count in the available reporting for “how many undocumented people have entered the U.S. since President Trump’s second term began”; sources instead provide competing estimates of net and gross flows, and report large removals and a likely recent decline in inflows (notably: Pew estimates a record 14 million unauthorized residents in 2023, DHS/CBP/ICE announcements claim millions removed or departed in 2025, and research groups show inflows falling in 2025) [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not provide a single, definitive tally of entries since inauguration; researchers report trends and ranges rather than one exact number [4] [3].
1. What the major independent researchers say about population size and trends
Pew Research Center’s revised work shows the unauthorized population reached about 14 million in 2023 and indicates growth through early 2024 with a slowdown and likely start of decline in 2025, driven by policy changes and increased removals — but Pew cautions that complete estimates for 2024–2025 remain provisional because of incomplete data [1] [4]. The San Francisco Fed’s updated net international migration analysis finds inflows of undocumented immigrants “sharply declined in 2025” versus 2024 and revises 2024 undetected entry estimates downward somewhat, which means recent entry rates have fallen from their 2023–2024 peaks [3].
2. Government statements and administrative tallies — large numbers, different framings
Department of Homeland Security announcements under the current administration emphasize large departure and removal tallies: for example, DHS press releases in 2025 assert that roughly 1.6 million and later “over 2 million” illegal immigrants have left or been removed in short timeframes — figures framed as removals or self-deportations rather than new entries, and they do not equal a contemporaneous count of total new entries since the inauguration [5] [2]. U.S. Customs and Border Protection also reported historically low encounter counts in some months of 2025, which government statements cite as evidence of reduced crossings [6].
3. Why you won’t find a single “entered since inauguration” number in reporting
Independent researchers and statisticians separate concepts: cumulative entries, detected versus undetected entries, visa overstays, net international migration, and the resident unauthorized population — each requires different data and assumptions. Pew emphasizes that additions to the stock are offset by departures, deaths, and status changes, so you cannot simply sum apprehensions or removals to produce a reliable total of new entrants since January 20 [4] [1]. The San Francisco Fed and CBO use models to estimate undetected entries (citing Border Patrol testimony and assumptions), again underscoring that estimates of entries are model-dependent and revised as new data arrive [3].
4. Conflicting figures and political messaging — interpret with care
Advocacy groups and some government releases present contrasting totals: FAIR reported an 18.6 million estimate for undocumented residents in March 2025, higher than Pew’s figures, reflecting different methodologies and likely political/organizational agendas that influence emphasis and interpretation [7]. DHS press briefings touting “1.6 million” or “over 2 million” departures emphasize enforcement successes; independent researchers warn these figures are not the same as a clean count of new entrants since inauguration and may be presented to highlight policy achievements [5] [2] [4].
5. Best synthesis from available reporting — ranges, not a precise count
Based on available sources, the factual picture is: (a) the unauthorized population rose to a record level by 2023 per Pew (about 14 million) and continued to change through 2024–2025 [1]; (b) research and administrative data show very high flows in 2021–2024 but a marked decline in detected inflows in 2025 [3]; and (c) DHS/CBP/ICE statements in 2025 report millions of removals or departures but do not provide an independently verified “since inauguration” entry tally [2] [5] [6]. Because of these differences, media and analysts report ranges and trends rather than a single cumulative entry number [4] [3].
6. What is missing or uncertain in current reporting
Available sources do not mention a single verified count of “undocumented people who entered since Trump’s second term began” that reconciles detected crossings, undetected entries, visa overstays, and removals into one figure; that precise cumulative entry total is not found in the current reporting [4] [3]. Estimates depend on evolving administrative records and modeling choices, so numbers will be revised as DHS, Census, CBO, and independent researchers update methodologies and data [4] [3].
7. How to interpret claims and what to watch next
Treat DHS/agency removal counts and advocacy group population estimates as different metrics: one measures departures or enforcement outcomes, another estimates the stock of unauthorized residents; independent researchers (Pew, FRBSF) bridge these with modeled flows and caution about uncertainty [2] [7] [4] [3]. Watch for revised Pew and DHS population estimates, CBO updates on undocumented inflows, and peer-reviewed analyses that reconcile administrative removals, apprehensions, and survey-based population totals — those will narrow today’s uncertainties [4] [3].
If you want, I can compile a short table comparing the key metrics in these sources (Pew, DHS, FRBSF, FAIR, CBP) and explain exactly what each figure does and does not measure.