Fact check: Is it true that a report from Homeland Security shows undocumented immigrants cost us 491 Billion annually

1. Where the $491 Billion Claim Likely Originated — A Political Estimate That Doesn’t Match DHS Wording

A widely circulated figure claiming $491 billion annually appears to be a variant of Republican committee reporting that attributes large taxpayer liabilities to migration flows; the most directly comparable House Republican release from November 2023 reported up to $451 billion rather than $491 billion and explicitly blamed Department of Homeland Security policies for creating fiscal pressure ^[1]. That Republican report framed its total as a projection of taxpayer costs tied to care for migrants who entered unlawfully and used policy critique as central context; independent reviewers note the report’s authorship and partisan framing shape scope and assumptions, making the figure contested, not a neutral DHS accounting ^[2].

2. Independent Academic Work Paints a Different Picture of Net Economic Effects

Academic and nonpartisan modeling produces different conclusions: the Penn Wharton Budget Model’s July 2025 study found that mass deportation would cost roughly $900 billion over ten years and slow GDP, implying that immigrants’ presence has significant economic value and that removing them is costly for the economy—this undercuts arguments that undocumented immigrants impose a $491 billion annual drag and instead highlights the economic contributions lost through deportation ^[3]. Other recent economic assessments forecast severe GDP declines under mass deportation scenarios and present macro-level losses measured in trillions over several years, showing the fiscal picture depends on whether one measures services provided, taxes paid, labor-market effects, or the cost of removing people ^{[5] [6]}.

3. Tax Contributions and Spending Power Are Frequently Omitted from High-Cost Estimates

Several policy organizations emphasize the tax payments and consumer spending of immigrants, including undocumented residents, which offset government expenditures. The American Immigration Council reported undocumented immigrants paid roughly $89.8 billion in taxes and held $299 billion in spending power in 2023, while the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimated nearly $100 billion in tax contributions for 2022; these figures complicate top-line “cost” claims by showing substantial offsets that partisan reports sometimes omit ^{[4] [7]}. Analysts caution that net fiscal impact requires combining public service use, tax revenue, and long-run labor-market effects—omitting any of these elements skews the result.

4. Methodology Matters: What Gets Counted Explains Why Numbers Vary Widely

The divergence between claims such as $451 billion, alleged $491 billion, and much lower or higher estimates comes down to different methodological choices: whether a report counts one-time surge costs, recurring per-capita use of services, long-term education and healthcare, tax offsets, enforcement and removal expenses, or macroeconomic output changes. Partisan committee reports often focus on immediate fiscal liabilities tied to service delivery and enforcement, while academic models incorporate broader GDP and labor-supply effects; both approaches are valid for different questions but cannot be compared without aligning definitions ^{[1] [3] [8]}.

5. Political Motives and Framing Are Central to Interpreting Cost Claims

Republican committee reports framing high annual costs also advance policy prescriptions—blaming DHS leadership and urging stricter border measures—so the political agenda of the source must be weighed when interpreting headline numbers ^{[1] [2]}. Conversely, advocacy groups and academic centers emphasize immigrant contributions to argue against mass removals or to highlight reform benefits, revealing another agenda that favors retention and regularization; readers should treat all sources as having perspectives and compare underlying data and assumptions before accepting a single headline figure ^{[4] [8]}.

6. Practical Takeaway: No DHS Report States $491B Annual Cost, and Net Impact Remains Complex

Based on the documents summarized, no DHS-authored report states undocumented immigrants cost $491 billion per year; the closest explicit partisan estimate was $451 billion from a House Republican report ^[1]. Independent studies and tax-data-based analyses point to substantial tax contributions, significant economic value, and large costs associated with deportation, demonstrating that simple annual “cost” labels are misleading; responsible assessment requires transparent methodology, inclusion of tax offsets, and clarity about whether figures are one-time, annual, or multi-year ^{[3] [4]}.

7. How to Evaluate Future Claims — A Checklist for Readers

When you see an eye-catching number about immigration costs, verify: who authored it, whether it’s counting one-time versus recurring costs, whether it includes tax revenues and spending power, and whether macroeconomic effects like GDP changes or deportation costs are being modeled; partisan reports, academic models, and advocacy analyses each answer different policy questions, so compare methods and timeframes before accepting a headline. The provided reports illustrate this dynamic: conflicting numbers reflect differing choices and priorities rather than a single, settled fiscal truth ^{[1] [3] [7]}.