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How many undocumented immigrants entered the us between jan2021 and jan 2025
Executive summary
Available reporting does not provide a single, definitive tally of how many undocumented immigrants “entered” the United States between January 2021 and January 2025; instead, researchers offer different measures (net population change, arrivals by parole or encounters, and administrative counts) that imply substantial growth through 2023 and ambiguous trends in 2024–mid‑2025 (Pew Research Center; FAIR) [1] [2]. Pew estimates the unauthorized population rose by roughly 3.5 million from 2021 to 2023, reaching about 14 million in 2023; other groups (e.g., FAIR) produce much higher multi‑million totals for 2025, reflecting different methods [1] [3] [2].
1. What researchers actually measure — population versus entries
Experts use at least three different concepts: (a) survey‑based estimates of the total unauthorized population at points in time, (b) counts of border encounters or parole admissions (administrative tallies of people apprehended or paroled), and (c) modeled net migration estimates that combine entries and departures. Pew’s headline finding is a change in the unauthorized population — not a simple sum of “entries” — reporting a rise of about 3.5 million between 2021 and 2023 to roughly 14 million unauthorized people in 2023 [1] [3]. Advocacy groups and other analysts publish alternate totals using different data and assumptions, producing widely divergent numbers [2].
2. The Pew Research Center view: big growth through 2023, mixed signals later
Pew’s analysis says unauthorized population growth was large from 2021 to 2023 (roughly +3.5 million) and that the total reached about 14 million in 2023; for 2024 the data suggested continued growth into the early part of the year with slower growth later, and early 2025 CPS monthly data showed a decline by mid‑2025 — implying the unauthorized population may have started decreasing in 2025 [1] [3]. Pew cautions that 2024–2025 data are less complete and that monthly CPS trends are suggestive rather than a definitive population estimate [1].
3. Administrative tallies — parole and border encounters complicate the count
Administrative figures show large numbers of people admitted under parole programs and encountered at the border: for example, FAIR highlights more than 1.34 million people entered via parole in FY2023 and the CBO used DHS data to estimate large net illegal inflows over 2021–2026 [2]. These programmatic admissions matter because parolees often appear in the population estimates but can be tracked separately by DHS, which complicates simple “entries” arithmetic [2].
4. Why different estimates diverge — methods, undercounting, and timing
Researchers diverge because survey approaches (like Pew’s CPS/ACS‑based residual methods) estimate population at a date and attempt to correct for undercount, while administrative counts record encounters or legal paroles but miss undetected crossings and do not equal net population change [1] [2]. FAIR and some other groups argue official surveys undercount recent arrivals and apply upward adjustments, producing much higher totals (FAIR’s 2025 estimate of 18.6 million) [2]. The Census Bureau’s adjustments to migration weights in early 2025 also changed how researchers interpret recent trends [4] [5].
5. What the available sources allow you to say about Jan 2021–Jan 2025 specifically
Available sources do not give a one‑line count of “entries between Jan 2021 and Jan 2025.” Instead: Pew documents a net rise of about 3.5 million in the unauthorized population from 2021–2023 and says growth likely continued into 2024 before slowing and beginning to decline by mid‑2025 [1] [3]. Administrative program counts (e.g., parole admissions of more than a million in a single fiscal year) show large flows into the country but are not presented as a cumulative “entries between Jan 2021 and Jan 2025” figure in the materials provided [2].
6. Competing perspectives and political use of the numbers
Different organizations have clear institutional perspectives: Pew emphasizes transparent survey methods and caveats about data limits [1], FAIR applies corrections that yield much larger totals and frames the rise as a crisis for policy [2], and policy research centers note how administrative policy changes (parole programs, DHS actions) strongly affect counts and the visibility of migrants [1] [5]. Each approach can be used to support opposing policy narratives — for example, larger cumulative entry estimates can be used to argue for stricter enforcement, while survey estimates that emphasize uncertainty can be used to call for more nuanced policy responses [2] [1].
7. Bottom line for your questioner
If you mean “how many people without legal status entered the U.S. between Jan 2021 and Jan 2025,” available reporting does not supply that exact cumulative entry number; instead, peer research shows large net increases (about +3.5 million in 2021–2023 per Pew), major administrative inflows via parole and encounters in various years, and sharply different totals depending on method (Pew ~14 million in 2023 vs. FAIR ~18.6 million in 2025) [1] [2]. To convert these building blocks into a single entries figure would require combining administrative admissions, estimated undetected crossings, and outflows — a reconciliation not present in the sources provided [1] [2].