Fact check: Can undocumented immigrants pay into Social Security?

1. Why the Tax Payments Matter and the Headline Numbers That Circulate

Multiple, independent analyses converge on a similar headline: undocumented workers paid roughly $25–26 billion into Social Security in the early 2020s, a sum repeatedly cited across studies and news reports. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy reported $25.7 billion in 2022 ^[1], while the American Immigration Council placed contributions at $26.2 billion for 2023 ^[2]. News outlets and policy centers echoed the same magnitude for 2022–2023, signalling consistent measurement of payroll tax flows from workers without lawful status ^[3]. This consistency is critical because small differences across reports reflect timing and estimation methods, not fundamental disagreement about the presence of significant contributions.

2. How Undocumented Workers Pay In—Mechanics and Tax Paths

The mechanism behind these payments is straightforward: many undocumented immigrants work in payroll-covered jobs and pay Social Security and Medicare taxes through employer withholding or pay into the system using Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers or even stolen Social Security numbers. Policy briefs and reporting highlight that payroll tax collection does not automatically equate to entitlement to benefits; the tax system collects regardless of immigration status while eligibility for benefits depends on work history and lawful status ^{[4] [5]}. The practical result is a net inflow to the Social Security Trust Fund from workers who are generally unable to claim those funds, a point repeatedly emphasized in the cited analyses ^{[1] [3]}.

3. The Counterfactual—What Deportation or Restrictive Policy Would Change

Analysts warn that large-scale deportation or restrictive enforcement that reduces undocumented employment would subtract billions from Social Security’s cash flow. Multiple estimates put this potential loss near $20 billion annually if removal of undocumented workers proceeds at scale, reflecting both lost payroll tax revenue and second-order economic effects ^[5]. The framing used by think tanks and newsrooms links immigration policy directly to program solvency debates, underlining that changes in the labor force composition matter for public finances even when affected workers are ineligible for benefits ^{[5] [2]}.

4. Variation in Estimates—Why $25.7B vs. $26.2B Shows Method, Not Mystery

Reported figures vary slightly—$25.7 billion for 2022, $26.2 billion for 2023—because studies use different datasets, time windows, and assumptions about underreported work and tax compliance. These differences are methodological rather than contradictory, as multiple organizations independently reach comparable magnitudes ^{[1] [2] [4]}. News outlets and policy centers that cite these numbers do so to emphasize the fiscal significance; discrepancies reflect updated data and modeling choices but do not undermine the central claim that undocumented workers are a material net contributor to Social Security revenue ^[3].

5. Political Narratives and How They Use the Numbers

The same tax-contribution facts are used in competing political arguments. Advocates for more restrictive enforcement highlight ineligibility for benefits to argue for deportation, while opponents stress that removing those workers would harm Social Security finances. Reporting in early and mid‑2025 has emphasized both angles: warnings that Trump-era deportation policies could worsen Social Security shortfalls, and analyses pointing to a database used in enforcement that may reduce the undocumented workforce’s fiscal contributions ^{[5] [3]}. The dual use of the data demonstrates how factual estimates can be marshaled to opposing policy goals.

6. What’s Missing from the Public Debate—Omitted Considerations That Matter

Public discussion often omits longer-term dynamics that affect these numbers, including how legalization pathways, demographic change, and labor demand alter payroll tax bases. Most cited analyses focus on near-term cash flows, not lifetime benefit accruals, intergenerational effects, or the administrative realities of benefit eligibility ^{[4] [5]}. Additionally, enforcement measures that reduce undocumented employment can create indirect economic feedbacks—lower consumer demand and employer adjustments—that amplify fiscal effects beyond direct payroll tax losses ^{[3] [2]}.

7. Bottom Line for Policymakers and Public Understanding

The evidence establishes a clear, actionable fact: undocumented immigrants pay substantial payroll taxes into Social Security yet are largely excluded from benefits, and policy shifts that reduce undocumented employment would measurably lower those tax receipts by billions annually. Multiple organizations and news outlets documented near-identical dollar magnitudes across 2022–2023, reinforcing the reliability of the core finding even as estimates differ slightly by year and methodology ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Any policy debate over immigration and program solvency should therefore treat these fiscal contributions as a real, quantifiable factor.