Fact check: How much do undocumented immigrants contribute to Social Security and Medicare?

1. Claims on the Table That Drive the Debate

The central claims examined are straightforward: first, that undocumented immigrants pay substantial payroll taxes that flow into Social Security and Medicare; second, that these payments cannot usually be claimed back by those workers, effectively subsidizing benefits for other beneficiaries; and third, that immigrants’ tax contributions influence solvency projections for Social Security. Multiple analyses quantify those payments, stating about $25.7–26 billion for Social Security and $6.4 billion for Medicare in 2022, while broader tax tallies for 2022 reach approximately $96.7–97 billion ^{[2] [1] [3]}. Those numeric claims are central to policy arguments on immigration and entitlement financing.

2. What the Recent Data Actually Shows

Independent reports and media fact-checks converge on the numeric estimates for 2022: $25.7 billion in Social Security payroll taxes and $6.4 billion in Medicare payroll taxes, with nearly $97 billion in total federal, state, and local taxes paid by undocumented immigrants that year ^{[2] [1] [3]}. These figures rest on tax-filing and payroll records and modeling of the undocumented population and their labor force participation. Researchers emphasize that many undocumented workers pay using Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers (ITINs) or payroll withholding and thus contribute to payroll tax receipts that fund the trust funds ^[4].

3. Why Those Payments Matter to Social Security and Medicare

Payroll taxes are the primary revenue source for Social Security and Medicare Part A; therefore, any payroll-tax payments increase receipts to those trust funds regardless of legal status of payers. Because undocumented workers often cannot claim benefits without legal status changes, a portion of payroll taxes they pay does not translate into benefits for them, creating a net positive effect on payroll-tax cash flows. Some analysts link higher immigration to improved long-term payroll-tax receipts and a smaller projected Social Security shortfall, while reduced immigration increases projected funding gaps ^[5].

4. Important Limitations and Measurement Caveats

These estimates rely on modeling assumptions about the size, employment, and wages of undocumented populations and on tax filings using ITINs; thus uncertainty about population size, underreporting, and labor informality affects precision. Some analyses use differing baselines and years—causing variation (e.g., $89.8 billion vs. $96.7 billion totals in other reports) ^{[6] [3]}. Additionally, payroll taxes are only part of the fiscal picture; undocumented immigrants also use public services (varying by state and local policy), which affects net fiscal impact beyond Social Security and Medicare receipts ^[6].

5. Competing Narratives and Potential Agendas

Pro-immigration analysts highlight payroll-tax contributions and the unreclaimable nature of payments for undocumented workers to argue for more inclusive immigration policy or legalization, emphasizing fiscal benefits and fairness ^{[2] [5]}. Advocates for stricter enforcement may emphasize costs of public services or question estimate methods, framing the same data to argue for immigration controls. Fact-checkers stress the technical point that undocumented people can and do pay taxes—an argument used by both camps to bolster policy positions ^[4]. Each use of the data carries an evident policy agenda.

6. Where the Data Does and Does Not Speak to Solvency Projections

The fact that undocumented immigrants pay payroll taxes contributes to Social Security and Medicare cash flows; however, current insolvency projections for Social Security arise from demographics, wage growth, and long-term program liabilities, not solely immigration levels. Some studies indicate that increased legal migration can materially improve solvency metrics, but modest changes in undocumented-worker contributions alone are unlikely to eliminate projected shortfalls without broader policy changes to benefits, payroll-tax rates, or immigration flows ^{[5] [7]}.

7. Practical Policy Implications Worth Noting

Policymakers considering immigration reform or entitlement adjustments should weigh that payroll-tax contributions by undocumented workers are nontrivial and tend to improve payroll receipts, but they should also account for measurement uncertainty and the limited scale relative to total program funding needs. Legalization could change benefit eligibility and thus the net fiscal effect; conversely, large reductions in immigrant labor force participation would worsen short-term payroll-tax receipts. Transparent modeling of scenarios is necessary to inform policy trade-offs ^{[1] [5]}.

8. Quick Source Guide and Dates for Context

Key recent sources include media and research reports from 2024–2025 that converge on the 2022 tax-year estimates: analyses showing ~$25.7–26 billion Social Security taxes and $6.4 billion Medicare taxes in 2022, and total tax contributions near $96.7–97 billion ^{[1] [2] [3]}. A 2025 fact-check reiterates that undocumented immigrants file taxes via ITINs and contribute sizable tax revenue ^[4]. Readers should weigh publication dates—these are primarily 2024–2025 estimates—and recognize that future demographic or policy shifts will alter these figures ^{[6] [5]}.