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Fact check: What percentage of illegal immigrants file tax returns in the US?
Executive Summary
The short answer: there is no single, definitive percentage of undocumented immigrants who file tax returns; studies and advocacy groups report broad ranges from roughly 50% to 75% of households, while tax-payment estimates show nearly $90–$97 billion in taxes paid by undocumented immigrants in recent years. Key government guidance confirms undocumented people can and do file using Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers (ITINs), but IRS materials and independent analyses do not produce a precise national filing-rate figure [1] [2] [3]. The evidence supports that a substantial share of undocumented households participate in the tax system, but exact percentages vary by method and definition.
1. Why the numbers differ: methodological choices drive headlines
Analysts arrive at different percentages because they measure different populations and use different proxies—household-level versus individual filing, ITIN holders versus all undocumented people, and tax filings versus taxes paid. Advocacy studies reporting an 50–75% household filing range rely on demographic modeling and ITIN issuance as proxies [1], while tax-payment studies estimate total dollars paid—nearly $97 billion in 2022—by combining payroll, sales, and property tax estimates with population models [2] [4]. The divergence stems from whether the unit is a household, an individual, or an economic contribution, producing different but not mutually exclusive pictures [5].
2. What the tax-payment studies actually show: dollars, not percentages
Multiple reports converge on similar totals for taxes paid by undocumented immigrants: roughly $89.8–$97 billion in recent years, with significant shares allocated to federal, state, and local coffers [2] [5] [4]. These studies emphasize aggregate fiscal contributions, noting payroll and sales taxes as main components and citing state-level impacts where some states collect over $1 billion from undocumented populations [5]. These dollar-centric studies do not directly compute the share of undocumented people who file returns; they instead infer participation via tax receipts and ITIN-based filings as supporting evidence [2].
3. ITINs and the legal ability to file: IRS rules and real-world use
The IRS allows individuals without Social Security numbers to file federal returns using an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN); IRS guidance outlines filing obligations for nonresident and resident aliens regardless of immigration status [3] [6] [7]. A Reuters fact-check confirmed undocumented people can and do file with ITINs and noted nearly $97 billion in taxes tied to undocumented contributions in 2022, while explicitly stating the exact percentage filing was not determined by that piece [8]. Thus government rules and media fact-checks corroborate that filing is possible and practiced, but they stop short of offering a definitive filing-rate percentage.
4. Advocacy estimates and their assumptions: the 50–75% household figure explained
Immigrant-rights organizations and sympathetic research outlets often report that 50% to 75% of undocumented households file taxes, drawing on ITIN issuance, survey data, and modeling of labor force participation [1] [9]. Those estimates assume households with wage earners in formal employment or paying payroll taxes are likely to file. Critics note these figures may overstate filing if they count households rather than individuals, or if they extrapolate ITIN use to all filings without accounting for cash-pay workers or fear-driven nonfiling. The range reflects uncertainty and the different signals analysts use to infer filing behavior [9].
5. What the IRS materials show—and what they leave out
IRS publications detail who must file and how noncitizens use ITINs or SSNs when eligible, but they do not publish a definitive tally of undocumented filers as a share of the undocumented population [3] [7]. The IRS tracks ITIN issuance and returns filed using ITINs, which provide partial visibility, but the agency’s publicly available data and tax code constraints prevent a clean crosswalk from ITIN activity to the full undocumented population. Consequently, researchers must rely on indirect methods—survey imputation, tax-record extrapolation, and model-based population estimates—to approximate filing rates [6].
6. Balancing the evidence: a cautious synthesis for readers
Combining the sources yields a consistent narrative: many undocumented households participate in the tax system, paying tens of billions annually and using ITINs to file, but precise national filing-rate percentages vary by definition and methodology. Studies focused on dollars emphasize fiscal contribution [2] [4], while advocacy groups produce household-range estimates [1]. Independent fact-checks and IRS guidance confirm the practice but underscore limits in available data that prevent a single, authoritative percentage [8] [3].
7. What’s missing and why it matters for policy debates
The absence of a single percentage matters because policymakers cite filing rates to justify positions on legalization, benefits access, or enforcement. The key omissions are longitudinal tracking of ITIN filings by immigration status, clear household versus individual breakdowns, and data on informal cash-paid workers who neither file nor generate payroll tax records. These gaps make it easy for stakeholders to pick figures supporting their agendas, so analysts must emphasize definitions and methods when citing any percentage [1] [5].