Fact check: How many undocumented immigrants are estimated to be living in the US as of 2025?

1. Why 14 million is the headline number that keeps recurring

Multiple recent analyses converge on 14 million unauthorized immigrants as the headline estimate, based primarily on Pew Research Center’s methodology and its interpretation of Census data through 2023 and into 2024. Pew reported a jump from about 10.5 million in 2021 to 14 million in 2023, calling that a historic and record high increase; that figure is carried forward in summaries of 2025 data because other datasets (including preliminary Census estimates through June 2025) still align with a similar magnitude of the unauthorized population when using Pew’s share calculations ^{[3] [1] [6]}. The persistence of the 14 million figure reflects both the magnitude of the 2021–2023 increase and the lag in definitive, finalized counts for 2024–2025.

2. How analysts translate immigrant totals into an undocumented estimate

Researchers translated broader immigrant counts into unauthorized estimates by applying proportions derived from surveys and administrative records; for example, a Pew analysis of mid‑2025 Census releases reported 51.9 million immigrants in the U.S. as of June 2025 and noted that about 27% of immigrants were unauthorized, which the analysis equated to roughly 14 million undocumented people when using the established unauthorized share from prior Pew work ^[6]. This method relies on combining census totals with independent estimates of the unauthorized share, meaning the resulting unauthorized count is sensitive to both the total foreign‑born estimate and the proportion assumed unauthorized, and those inputs can shift with new data releases.

3. Conflicting claims about departures and whether a mass exodus occurred

Some reporting has suggested that as many as 1.6 million undocumented immigrants left the United States, prompting headlines about a mass exodus; researchers and analysts involved in these discussions caution that the evidence is not definitive and that it is premature to conclude a large, sustained outflow without more reliable, longitudinal data ^[4]. Pew’s broader assessment indicates the unauthorized population grew into 2024 and may have only started to decline in 2025, suggesting smaller net departures or short‑term mobility rather than a single large emigration event; the contrasting narratives stem from different datasets, time windows, and interpretations of preliminary census numbers ^{[4] [3]}.

4. Census‑based trends that complicate the picture through June 2025

A new Census Bureau snapshot — analyzed by Pew and cited in August 2025 reporting — showed the foreign‑born population falling from 53.3 million to 51.9 million between January and June 2025, a drop of nearly 1.5 million foreign‑born residents and the first decline in more than 50 years; analysts translated these shifts into changing estimates for the unauthorized population, but emphasized that short‑term volatility in census snapshots can reflect seasonal flows, survey timing, and methodological differences rather than a clean, immediate change in undocumented residency ^{[5] [1]}. The Census‑based decline provides evidence for recent change, but converting that to an exact undocumented count requires assumptions that produce varied estimates.

5. Why timing, methods, and categories matter for final counts

Estimating unauthorized population size depends on three moving parts: total foreign‑born counts, the share of that population that is unauthorized, and how temporary protections or work permits are classified; Pew notes about 40% of unauthorized immigrants had some form of temporary protection and around 6 million had work authorization as of its analyses, underscoring complexities in categorization ^[1]. Changes in legal status, enforcement, border flows, and visa programs between 2023 and mid‑2025 alter those inputs, so short‑term estimates can diverge even while the headline 14 million figure remains a common reference point in 2025 analyses.

6. What to watch next to clarify the 2025 picture

To resolve competing claims, researchers will look for finalized Census releases, updated Pew methodological notes, and administrative datasets that reconcile survey proportions and population totals; tracking whether the foreign‑born decline shown in the January–June 2025 snapshot persists across later months and whether independent measures corroborate large emigration numbers is essential. Analysts caution that more complete, time‑consistent data is needed before revising the widely cited 14 million estimate materially, and that early 2025 signals suggest a possible decline but not a definitive new baseline ^{[5] [3]}.

7. Bottom line for readers seeking a concise answer

The most defensible, widely cited figure for undocumented immigrants in the U.S. as of 2025 is approximately 14 million, rooted in Pew’s record‑high 2023 estimate and carried forward in mid‑2025 analyses that convert recent foreign‑born totals into unauthorized shares; claims of large departures or a sharp decrease in 2025 are plausible but remain contested pending fuller data releases. The 14 million benchmark should be treated as the current consensus anchor, with the caveat that short‑term trends in 2024–2025 are actively debated and sensitive to methodology ^{[2] [4]}.