Fact check: How many undocumented immigrants are currently the US

1. Summary of the results

The exact number of undocumented immigrants in the US is subject to significant debate and methodological differences. The most widely cited estimate comes from the Pew Research Center, which puts the number at 11.0 million as of 2022, an increase from 10.5 million in 2021 ^[1]. However, a Yale-affiliated study suggests a much higher number of approximately 22.1 million ^[2]. Most immigration groups estimate the population between 10.9 and 16.8 million, with the Department of Homeland Security citing 11 million as of January 2022 ^[3].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important contextual factors need to be considered:

• The current number represents a reversal of a previous downward trend that occurred from 2007-2019 ^[1]
• Approximately 3 million of these individuals have temporary protection from deportation, representing almost 30% of the total estimate ^[1]
• The population is likely to have grown since mid-2022 due to increased border encounters and asylum claim backlogs ^[1]
• The current numbers are still below the peak of 12.2 million recorded in 2007 ^[1]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The main source of potential bias comes from different counting methodologies:

• The Pew Research Center uses a "residual method" based on the American Community Survey ^[1]
• The Yale study employs mathematical modeling and demographic data, arguing that survey-based methods likely undercount the population ^[2]
• These methodological differences explain the wide range in estimates, from 11 million to 22.1 million

Organizations advocating for stricter immigration policies might benefit from citing higher numbers, while those supporting immigration reform might prefer lower estimates. Government agencies like DHS tend to align with the more conservative estimates around 11 million, which could affect policy decisions and resource allocation.