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Fact check: How has the estimated number of undocumented immigrants in the US changed since 2020?
Executive Summary
Since 2020, public estimates of the number of undocumented (unauthorized) immigrants in the United States have diverged sharply: some respected trackers put the figure near 11 million in 2021–2022, while a later Pew analysis reports as high as 14 million by 2023, and other 2025 data show broader population shifts that complicate interpretation [1] [2] [3]. The differences reflect methodological choices, rapidly changing flows, and recent policy-driven departures, so the trend is best expressed as a range with substantial uncertainty rather than a single settled number [4] [5].
1. What proponents are claiming — a big surge to 14 million and why it matters
Several recent analyses claim a marked increase in the unauthorized population, with Pew Research Center reporting an estimate of about 14 million in 2023, which it presented as a record high and a sharp rise relative to 2020–2021 levels. That claim frames the issue as a large and rapid increase in unauthorized residents within a short period, implying policy, enforcement and humanitarian implications for federal and state planning. The 14 million figure is cited explicitly in the provided summaries and is presented as an abrupt change requiring policy attention [2] [6].
2. What other authoritative trackers report — more modest increases around 11–11.3 million
By contrast, Migration Policy Institute (MPI) summaries and other trackers put the unauthorized population nearer to 11.0–11.3 million as of mid‑2021/2022, noting a reversal of a prior downward trend but only modest year‑to‑year growth. That line of estimates suggests more gradual change and highlights country‑of‑origin shifts (e.g., increases from Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua) rather than a wholesale population surge. These estimates underscore how different methodologies and cut‑off dates produce materially different narratives about change since 2020 [1].
3. Newer population context complicates interpretation — overall immigrant population declined in 2025
A Pew report dated August 21, 2025, finds the total U.S. immigrant population fell by 2.6% between January and June 2025, from 53.3 million to 51.9 million. That decline in the broader immigrant pool introduces complexity when assessing unauthorized totals: departures, removals, and voluntary returns can change the unauthorized share even if arrivals remain steady. The 2025 decline suggests recent enforcement and policy shifts, plus voluntary departures, may have begun reducing overall immigrant numbers, complicating any simple “increase since 2020” storyline [3].
4. Recent enforcement and incentives — evidence of voluntary departures ("self‑deportation")
Reporting in late 2025 documents programs and enforcement that appear to have induced tens of thousands of people to leave voluntarily, including cash incentives and facilitated travel through apps and targeted operations. These accounts describe what analysts call “self‑deportation” and could account for part of the observed declines or shifts in population counts, especially after 2023. Such dynamics mean net unauthorized totals reflect both inflows and outflows driven by policy, not solely border crossings [4].
5. Official projections and policy effects — CBO’s removal estimates
The Congressional Budget Office projects that certain announced mass‑deportation policies would lead to roughly 320,000 fewer immigrants over ten years, with 290,000 removed and 30,000 leaving voluntarily. Those projections, while forward‑looking and policy‑dependent, indicate that planned enforcement can modestly reduce unauthorized totals over a multi‑year horizon but are small relative to the difference between 11 million and 14 million estimates. Projections reinforce that policy choices will influence future counts but do not resolve past discrepancies [5].
6. Why estimates diverge — methodology, timing, and definitions
Estimates vary because sources use different data, timing, and definitions: some use survey and administrative data to model unauthorized populations; others adjust for illegal entries, overstays, and recent removals. Timing matters—mid‑2022 vs. end‑2023 vs. mid‑2025 snapshots capture different flow phases. The provided sources show that methodological differences produce large numeric gaps, and that none of the summaries here should be treated as definitive without examining original methods and margins of error [1] [7] [2].
7. Bottom line — a range with important caveats
Using only the provided analyses, the best representation is that the unauthorized population rose modestly from about 11.0–11.3 million in 2019–2022 to possibly as high as 14 million by 2023 per one major analysis, but 2025 population declines and enforcement‑driven departures introduce uncertainty about current totals. The divergence stems from competing methodologies, rapidly changing migration flows, and recent policy actions; policymakers and analysts should treat figures as conditional estimates and prioritize transparency about methods and dates when citing them [1] [2] [3] [4] [5].