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Fact check: What percentage of Social Security and Medicare taxes come from undocumented workers?
Executive Summary
Undocumented workers contribute billions to Social Security and Medicare through payroll taxes, but the reviewed materials do not provide a definitive percentage of those programs’ revenues that come from undocumented workers; available estimates focus on aggregate tax dollars paid by undocumented immigrants rather than a percent share of Social Security and Medicare receipts [1] [2] [3]. Researchers and advocacy groups report figures such as $96.7 billion in total taxes paid by undocumented immigrants in 2022, and other estimates like $89.8 billion, but none of the supplied sources break that down into a precise percentage of Social Security or Medicare tax revenue [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the headline question is hard to answer with precision, and what the sources actually supply
The central difficulty is that payroll taxes feed large, pooled federal trust funds and general receipts, so tracing a precise share from any population subgroup requires detailed tax-record analysis that the supplied sources do not provide. The materials consistently state that undocumented immigrants pay payroll taxes—sometimes using fake Social Security numbers or ITINs—and thus contribute to Social Security and Medicare financing, but they stop short of converting those contributions into a percentage of total program revenues [1]. Those sources emphasize aggregate dollar estimates and the policy implication that many contributors cannot later claim benefits, but they do not present a percent-of-receipts calculation.
2. What the recent dollar estimates say and how they differ
Two recurring figures appear across the supplied analyses: $96.7 billion in total taxes paid by undocumented immigrants in 2022 (ITEP-linked reporting) and a separate estimate of $89.8 billion with detailed splits between state/local and federal shares [1] [2] [3]. Both portray substantial fiscal contributions and note that "billions" go toward federal programs including Social Security and Medicare, yet neither source isolates Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes specifically. The difference between $96.7 billion and $89.8 billion reflects methodological variation and differing publication contexts rather than a settled consensus [2] [3].
3. How undocumented workers pay but often cannot claim benefits—an important omitted consideration
The supplied analyses stress that undocumented workers frequently pay into Social Security and Medicare using fraudulent Social Security numbers or ITINs, which permits payroll tax collection but often disqualifies or blocks later benefit claims, producing a net transfer into the system without reciprocal payouts for many contributors [1]. This dynamic is central to policy debates: contributors who cannot claim benefits effectively subsidize beneficiaries, yet the materials do not quantify how much of the payroll-tax base this subgroup represents as a percentage.
4. What the sources say about the distribution of those tax payments across government levels
The analyses indicate that more than a third of the estimated tax contributions are paid to states and localities, with the remainder to federal coffers; one source provides a split of $33.9 billion to state/local taxes and $55.8 billion to federal taxes in one estimate, underscoring that undocumented taxpayers contribute broadly to public finance beyond federal payroll taxes [3]. The implication is that while some of their payments would flow into Social Security and Medicare, a meaningful portion supports other public services, complicating any attempt to map a single percentage to payroll-tax receipts.
5. Methodological roadblocks and what a rigorous percent estimate would require
To compute a reliable percentage of Social Security and Medicare revenues attributable to undocumented workers, researchers would need microdata linking wage records, payroll tax deposits, tax identification usage, and program receipts, plus adjustments for misreported Social Security numbers and untaxed informal-sector work. The supplied sources do not present such microdata or calculations; they primarily offer aggregate tax estimates and policy commentary, not a percent-of-receipts breakdown [1] [2] [4]. This absence is the decisive reason the question remains unanswered in the materials provided.
6. Contrasting viewpoints and possible agendas in the supplied materials
The analyses come from advocacy and policy-oriented outlets that emphasize either the fiscal contributions of undocumented immigrants or the policy failures that prevent them from receiving benefits, which can reflect underlying agendas to either support immigration reform or highlight enforcement concerns [1] [2]. The documents uniformly treat the tax-payment fact as important but choose different emphases—some stress trust erosion from ICE-IRS cooperation, others highlight potential gains to Social Security solvency from legal immigration—so readers should note that the selection and framing of dollar figures can advance different policy narratives [2] [4].
7. Bottom line and what credible next steps would produce a percent figure
The bottom line from the supplied analyses is clear: undocumented workers do pay substantial payroll and other taxes, but the materials do not—and cannot—state what percentage of Social Security and Medicare taxes those payments represent because they lack the necessary detailed accounting. A credible percent estimate would require up-to-date IRS and Social Security Administration microdata analysis, transparent assumptions about misreported Social Security numbers and ITIN usage, and peer review; none of the supplied sources presents that work, so the question remains empirically open based on the provided evidence [1] [3] [4].