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Which upcoming special elections or retirements could shift the House seat distribution before the 2026 midterms?
Executive summary
Several special elections already held in 2025 and a wave of retirements before the 2026 midterms can change the House’s math before November 2026: at least six special House elections occurred in 2025 (including two Florida districts on April 1 and vacancies in Texas and Virginia with special dates later in 2025) [1] [2]. Meanwhile, reporting and trackers show a rising number of House retirements for the 2026 cycle — Ballotpedia and NPR count dozens (Ballotpedia: 38 reported; NPR: 39 as of Sept. 15, 2025) — creating multiple open seats that could shift party control [3] [4].
1. Special elections already on the board that altered short‑term House math
At least six special elections took place in 2025 to fill vacancies during the 119th Congress; among the most notable were two Florida special elections held April 1, 2025, and additional contests in Virginia (Sept. 9) and Texas (Nov. 4) tied to incumbents’ deaths or resignations [1] [2] [5]. These special elections temporarily changed the composition of the House in 2025 and could continue to matter if winners are different from the parties that previously held the seats [2].
2. How special election timing can advantage one party or the other
State governors set special‑election timetables and that timing can be consequential: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott set a November date for a Houston seat after the incumbent’s death, a move Democrats said could leave the seat empty and help the GOP preserve a thin majority [6]. Federal law requires vacancies be filled by election, but state scheduling choices create strategic windows that may advantage incumbents’ parties or the opposition depending on turnout and calendar [7] [6].
3. Retirements are creating a bigger battlefield for 2026
Retirement trackers show an expanding list of members not seeking reelection in 2026. Ballotpedia reported dozens of House members as not running — a figure that Ballotpedia and other trackers (270toWin, NPR) update regularly — and NPR recorded a high number of congressional retirements (39 House members as of mid‑September 2025), which produces many open seats that are easier targets for party flips than defended incumbencies [3] [4] [8].
4. Which retirements look most consequential now (based on available trackers)
Provided sources list multiple retirements but do not consolidate a single “most consequential” list; Ballotpedia and 270toWin catalog members leaving and flag seats’ partisanship and forecaster ratings for 2026 open contests, which matter because open seats in competitive districts are likelier to change hands [3] [9]. NPR’s tracker highlights that many House departures are for other offices or retirement, increasing churn in candidate slates [4].
5. Redistricting and state actions amplify the impact of vacancies and retirements
State redistricting and special sessions have already shifted the map in ways that interact with retirements and special elections. For example, Missouri’s August 2025 special session redrew a district that allowed a GOP pickup, and California voters approved a map to help Democrats ahead of 2026 — both examples show how map changes can turn retirements or special elections into larger partisan swings [10] [6]. These state actions mean that the partisan stakes of a retirement depend heavily on contemporaneous map lines [10].
6. What this means for control of the House before and after 2026
Special elections in 2025 produced tangible seat changes and could continue to do so if more vacancies occur; trackers report at least six special elections in 2025 and multiple retirements heading into 2026 [1] [2] [4]. Forecasting groups and campaign committees are treating open, newly vulnerable seats as critical to whether Democrats can flip the House in 2026 (Republicans hold a narrow majority and Democrats need relatively few net pickups to change control), but sources caution that national dynamics (presidential approval, turnout) will remain decisive in 2026 [11] [12].
7. Limitations, disagreements and where coverage is sparse
Coverage varies by tracker: Ballotpedia publishes lists and periodic counts (e.g., 28 then 38 retirements in different updates) while NPR reports a larger cumulative figure; these differences reflect updates and inclusion criteria [13] [4]. Available sources do not mention a single authoritative list of exactly which upcoming special elections remain scheduled between now and November 2026 beyond those already held in 2025 and the two special elections set for Nov. 3, 2026 tied to Senate vacancies [1] [14]. Also, some local scheduling decisions and potential future resignations are not fully captured in national trackers yet (not found in current reporting).
8. Bottom line for readers
Special elections already held in 2025 and a growing list of 2026 retirements have created dozens of open or contested races that can reshape the House before the 2026 midterms; state scheduling and redistricting decisions will critically shape which party benefits [1] [4] [10]. For a clear seat‑by‑seat picture, follow Ballotpedia, NPR and the forecasters (Cook/270toWin) as they update lists and ratings — available sources show the terrain is fluid and state actions matter as much as national trends [3] [4] [15].