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Fact check: How did the number of immigrants entering the US in 2021-2024 compare to previous administrations?
Executive Summary
From 2021–2024 the United States saw an unprecedented surge in net international migration, with multiple analyses reporting annual net inflows well above historical norms and total net migration in the millions during the Biden years. Estimates differ on magnitude and methods, and deportation and enforcement statistics show continued removals and policy continuity with prior administrations, producing a complex picture of record arrivals alongside robust removals [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6].
1. The central claim: “Unprecedented immigration numbers between 2021–2024” explained
Multiple analyses assert a dramatic rise in net immigration beginning in 2021, describing the period as the largest migration surge in U.S. history. A Dallas Fed study measured total net immigration at roughly 10.5 million from 2021–2024 and recorded an annual population growth increase from about 0.6% pre-2020 to 1.1% at the 2023 peak, presenting the surge as an economic and demographic shock [1]. The New York Times placed annual net migration at an average of 2.4 million from 2021–2023 and projected total net migration during the Biden administration to exceed eight million, framing the years as historically large flows [2]. These foundational claims center on net migration—arrivals minus departures—not solely on border encounters.
2. Census methodology updates that magnify recent totals
The U.S. Census Bureau’s revised methods reported a net of 2.8 million migrants between 2023 and 2024, attributing part of the apparent increase to improved methodology that better captures recent fluctuations [3]. This methodological change is a crucial explanatory factor: some of the higher counts reflect measurement updates rather than purely an objective rise in arrivals. Analysts that rely on older methodologies will undercount recent inflows; those using the updated Census approach attribute larger shares of the increase to more accurate capture of mobility. That complicates year-to-year comparisons across administrations because measurement standards shifted mid-period [3].
3. How these numbers compare to previous administrations in raw terms
Comparative statements hinge on whether analysts report net migration, border apprehensions, or legal admissions. The New York Times and Dallas Fed portray 2021–2024 as far larger than prior administrations, with total net migration in the millions over a single presidential term—figures not seen in recent history [1] [2]. Those conclusions contrast with prior-term tallies where annual net migration typically hovered well below the 2-million-plus rates reported for 2021–2023. If the Census revised totals hold, the Biden years register as the largest net influx in modern records, but comparisons must acknowledge methodological breaks [2] [3].
4. Enforcement and removals: record inflows alongside large deportation totals
A June 2024 study found removals and returns under the Biden administration were on track to match Trump-era totals, reporting 1.1 million deportations since FY2021 and nearly 4.4 million repatriations, exceeding any single term since George W. Bush [4]. ICE data reported by NBC showed monthly deportation counts with Biden-era months exceeding comparable Trump-era months in at least some instances, e.g., over 12,000 deportations in February 2024 versus ~11,000 in February 2025 under Trump, illustrating that removals continued at high absolute levels even amid surging arrivals [5]. These enforcement numbers indicate simultaneous high inflows and high outflows, complicating narratives that cast any single administration as solely responsible for total population change [4] [5].
5. Policy continuity and contrasts: between rhetoric and practice
Policy-wise, the Biden administration retained and adapted several Trump-era measures while reversing others, producing a mix of continuity and change that influences migration flows and enforcement outcomes. Reported actions include continuing physical barrier construction for limited miles while abandoning some interior enforcement expansions and replacing “metering” with electronic appointment systems at ports of entry [6]. These policy hybrids likely affected both the number and the processing of migrants, meaning administration-level comparisons must account for operational continuities and legal constraints that cross presidential terms [6].
6. Sources’ perspectives and potential agendas to watch for
The provided sources vary in institutional perspective: a regional Federal Reserve researchers’ analysis emphasizes demographic and economic implications [1], mainstream reportage frames historical magnitude and policy implications [2] [3], and enforcement-focused studies stress removals and operational comparisons to past administrations [4] [5] [6]. Each may emphasize metrics aligned with institutional priorities—economic modeling, journalistic narrative, or enforcement counts—so claims about “largest ever” or “record deportations” reflect selective metric choices and methodological assumptions [1] [2] [3] [4].
7. Bottom line for comparison: big increases, but nuance matters
In sum, the weight of available analyses indicates substantially higher net migration in 2021–2024 than in recent prior administrations, potentially the largest such surge on record, but measurement changes and choice of metrics (net migration vs. apprehensions vs. removals) materially affect conclusions. Enforcement data show high deportation and repatriation totals concurrently with large arrivals, producing a complex, mixed-outcome picture rather than a simple “more or less than previous administrations” verdict [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6].