What are the current self deportation numbers in the US for 2025?
Executive summary
DHS has publicly claimed that about 1.6 million people “voluntarily self-deported” in 2025, and that total departures (self‑deported plus formal removals) exceeded 2 million, with formal removals reported as between roughly 400,000 and 527,000 in different DHS releases and speeches [1] [2]. Independent reporters, researchers and policy shops say the department’s topline math is opaque, the “self‑deportation” category is new and not well‑defined, and multiple outlets flag missing underlying data needed to verify the claim [3] [4] [5].
1. DHS’s headline: 1.6 million self‑deports and “2 million out”
The Department of Homeland Security has issued press releases and statements saying roughly 2 million “illegal aliens” have left the United States since January, and that about 1.6 million of those left via so‑called voluntary or “self‑deportation,” with the remainder categorized as formal deportations/removals [1] [2]. DHS materials and senior officials have repeatedly cited that 1.6 million figure as the centerpiece of their enforcement tallies [2] [1].
2. What “self‑deportation” means — and why sources disagree
The administration’s “self‑deportation” label covers people who left on their own, sometimes with CBP Home app assistance or airline arrangements; DHS says some departures used the app but also says the majority left without using it [2] [5]. Journalists and analysts say DHS has not published a methodological breakdown explaining who is counted, how repeat crossings are handled, or whether departures include people who were subject to prior orders — leaving the metric effectively unvetted [3] [4].
3. Independent data and reporting raise red flags about transparency
Major outlets and think tanks note DHS’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics stopped regular public reporting earlier in the year and that the administration’s totals have often appeared in press releases and social posts rather than in the usual granular datasets. That absence of routine, auditable tables makes independent verification difficult [3] [4] [5].
4. Alternative counts from ICE, MPI and reporters differ
ICE’s public statistics portals and dashboards present arrests, detentions and removals through December 2024, but do not catalog a 2025 “self‑deportation” total in the same terms DHS now uses, so researchers rely on varying sources to estimate 2025 removals [6]. The Migration Policy Institute used available federal data to estimate about 340,000 deportations in FY2025, a figure considerably below some of the administration’s higher removal counts [7]. News organizations tracking ICE and CBP biweekly releases also report tens of thousands of arrests, detentions and deportations that do not map neatly onto DHS’s 1.6 million self‑deport claim [8] [9].
5. How the number could be inflated by counting methods
Analysts and fact‑checkers point out common ways headline counts can be magnified: counting repeat border crossings multiple times, including people who abandoned migration attempts (never entered the U.S.), or combining short expulsions and voluntary departures with formal removals—without disaggregating them—produces larger topline numbers [10] [5] [4]. Available reporting highlights that DHS’s “self‑deportation” metric is not comparable to prior administrations’ public removal statistics for that reason [4].
6. On‑the‑ground reports show uneven access to “self‑deport” programs
Journalistic accounts describe the CBP Home app and associated programs as imperfect: some people reportedly received flights and cash offers, but many lawyers and advocates say the process has been confusing, slow, and inaccessible for many migrants who want to leave, suggesting the app alone cannot plausibly account for hundreds of thousands of departures [5] [11].
7. What a careful reader should conclude now
Available sources confirm DHS is publicly reporting ~1.6 million voluntary departures and a total of ~2 million departures when combined with formal removals [1] [2]. Independent researchers and major news outlets, however, emphasize DHS has not released the underlying datasets or definitions needed to verify that arithmetic, and alternative estimates of formal removals are substantially lower [3] [4] [7]. The result: the administration’s headline is verifiable as a stated claim, but not yet auditable by outside observers using the standard federal data releases [3] [4].
Limitations and next steps: DHS has issued topline statements [2] [1] but has not provided the granular, machine‑readable tables that would let researchers reproduce the 1.6 million “self‑deported” count—available sources do not mention a public methodological breakdown necessary for independent verification [4] [3]. Reporters and analysts recommend waiting for ICE/DHS to republish routine enforcement tables or for independent agencies (e.g., MPI, Pew) to reconcile counts before treating the 1.6 million figure as fully audited [7] [12].